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首页> 外文期刊>Atmosphere >The Role of Highly-Resolved Gust Speed in Simulations of Storm Damage in Forests at the Landscape Scale: A Case Study from Southwest Germany
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The Role of Highly-Resolved Gust Speed in Simulations of Storm Damage in Forests at the Landscape Scale: A Case Study from Southwest Germany

机译：高分辨率阵风速度在景观尺度下森林风暴破坏模拟中的作用：以德国西南部为例

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Routinely collected booking records of salvaged timber from the period 1979–2008 were used to empirically model the (1) storm damage probability; (2) proportions of storm-damaged timber and (3) endemic storm damage risk in the forest area of the German federal state of Baden-Wuerttemberg by applying random forests. Results from cross-validated predictor importance evaluation demonstrate that the relative impact of modeled gust speed fields on the predictive accuracy of the random forests models was greatest compared to the impact of forest and soil features. Forest areas prone to storm damage occurring within a period of five years were mainly located in mountainous upland regions where maximum gust speed exceeds 31 m/s in a five-year return period and conifers dominate the tree species composition. While mean storm damage probability continuously increased with increasing statistical gust speed proportions of storm-damaged timber peaked at a statistical maximum gust speed value of 29 m/s occurring in a five-year return period. Combining the statistical gust speed field with daily gust speed fields of two exceptional winter storms improved model accuracy and considerably increased the explained variance. Endemic storm damage risk was calculated from endemic storm damage probability and proportions of endemically storm-damaged timber. In combination with knowledge of local experts the storm damage risk modeled in a 50 m × 50 m resolution raster dataset can easily be used to identify areas prone to storm damage and to adapt silvicultural management regimes to make forests more windfirm.
机译：1979年至2008年间定期收集的打捞木材预订记录用于经验模型（1）风暴破坏的可能性; （2）应用随机森林在德国巴登-符腾堡州联邦森林地区的风暴造成的木材比例和（3）地方性风暴破坏风险。交叉验证的预测器重要性评估的结果表明，与森林和土壤特征的影响相比，建模的阵风速度场对随机森林模型的预测准确性的相对影响最大。五年内容易遭受风暴破坏的森林地区主要位于山区高原地区，在五年回归期内最大阵风速度超过31 m / s，并且针叶树占主导地位。虽然平均风暴破坏概率随着统计阵风速度的增加而持续增加，但在五年的返还期内，风暴损坏木材的统计阵风速度峰值达到统计的最大阵风速度值29 m / s。将两次阵风的统计阵风速度场与每日阵风速度场相结合，可以提高模型的准确性，并大大提高解释的方差。根据地方性风暴破坏概率和地方性风暴破坏木材的比例计算地方性风暴破坏风险。结合当地专家的知识，以50 m×50 m分辨率的栅格数据集建模的风暴破坏风险可以轻松地用于识别容易遭受风暴破坏的区域，并采用造林管理制度来使森林更加坚固。

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