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Future Changes in Global Precipitation Projected by the Atmospheric Model MRI-AGCM3.2H with a 60-km Size

机译：大气模型MRI-AGCM3.2H预测的60公里长的全球降水的未来变化

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摘要

We conducted global warming projections using the Meteorological Research Institute-Atmospheric General Circulation Model Version 3.2 with a 60-km grid size (MRI-AGCM3.2H). For the present-day climate of 21 years from 1983 through 2003, the model was forced with observed historical sea surface temperature (SST). For the future climate of 21 years from 2079–2099, the model was forced with future SST projected by conventional couple models. Twelve-member ensemble simulations for three different cumulus convection schemes and four different SST distributions were conducted to evaluate the uncertainty of projection. Annual average precipitation will increase over the equatorial regions and decrease over the subtropical regions. The future precipitation changes are generally sensitive to the cumulus convection scheme, but changes are influenced by the SST over the some regions of the Pacific Ocean. The precipitation efficiency defined as precipitation change per 1° surface air temperature warming is evaluated. The global average of precipitation efficiency for annual average precipitation was less than the maximum value expected by thermodynamical theory, indicating that dynamical atmospheric circulation is acting to reduce the conversion efficiency from water vapor to precipitation. The precipitation efficiency by heavy precipitation is larger than that by moderate and weak precipitation.
机译：我们使用气象研究所-大气总环流模型3.2版（网格长度为60公里）（MRI-AGCM3.2H）进行了全球变暖预测。对于从1983年到2003年这21年的当今气候，该模型是在观测的历史海面温度（SST）的基础上建立的。对于2079年至2099年的21年的未来气候，该模型是由常规耦合模型预测的未来SST强制执行的。对三种不同的积云对流方案和四种不同的SST分布进行了十二人合奏模拟，以评估投影的不确定性。年平均降水量将在赤道地区增加，在亚热带地区将减少。未来的降水变化通常对积云对流方案敏感，但变化受太平洋某些地区海温的影响。评估降水效率，定义为每1°地面气温升高的降水量变化。全球年均降水量的降水效率平均值小于热力学理论预期的最大值，表明动态大气环流正在降低水蒸气向降水的转化效率。重降水的降水效率大于中，弱降水的降水效率。

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