This study focuses on the impacts of climate change on rainfall erosivity in the Huai Luang watershed, Thailand. The multivariate climate models (IPCC AR5) consisting of CCSM4, CSIRO-MK3.6.0 and MRI-CGCM3 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios are analyzed. The Quantile mapping method is used as a downscaling technique to generate future precipitation scenarios which enable the estimation of future rainfall erosivity under possible changes in climatic conditions. The relationship between monthly precipitation and rainfall erosivity is used to estimate monthly rainfall erosivity under future climate scenarios. The assessment compared values of rainfall erosivity during 1982–2005 with future timescales (i.e., the 2030s, 2050s, 2070s and 2090s). The results indicate that the average of each General Circulation Model (GCM) combination shows a rise in the average annual rainfall erosivity for all four future time scales, as compared to the baseline of 8302 MJ mm ha?1 h?1 year?1, by 12% in 2030s, 24% in 2050s, 43% in 2070s and 41% in 2090s. The magnitude of change varies, depending on the GCMs (CCSM4, CSIRO-MK3.6.0, and MRI-CGCM3) and RCPs with the largest change being 82.6% (15,159 MJ mm ha?1 h?1 year?1) occurring under the MRI-CGCM3 RCP8.5 scenario in 2090s. A decrease in rainfall erosivity has been found, in comparison to the baseline by 2.3% (8114 MJ mm ha?1 h?1 year?1) for the CCSM4 RCP4.5 scenario in 2030s and 2.6% (8088 MJ mm ha?1 h?1 year?1) for the 2050s period. However, this could be considered uncertain for future rainfall erosivity estimation due to different GCMs. The results of this study are expected to help development planners and decision makers while planning and implementing suitable soil erosion and deposition control plans to adapt climate change in the Huai Luang watershed.
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机译：这项研究的重点是泰国槐隆流域的气候变化对降雨侵蚀力的影响。分析了在RCP4.5和RCP8.5排放情景下由CCSM4，CSIRO-MK3.6.0和MRI-CGCM3组成的多元气候模型（IPCC AR5）。分位数映射方法用作降尺度技术，以生成未来的降水情景，从而能够在气候条件可能发生变化的情况下估算未来的降雨侵蚀力。月降水量与降雨侵蚀力之间的关系用于估计未来气候情景下的月降雨侵蚀力。该评估将1982-2005年的降雨侵蚀力值与未来的时间尺度（即2030、2050、2070和2090）进行了比较。结果表明，相比于8302 MJ mm ha？1 h？1 year？1的基线，每种通用循环模型（GCM）组合的平均值都显示出所有四个未来时间尺度的年平均降雨侵蚀力都有所提高， 2030年代增加12％，2050年代增加24％，2070年代增加43％，2090年代增加41％。变化幅度的变化取决于GCM（CCSM4，CSIRO-MK3.6.0和MRI-CGCM3）和RCP，最大变化为82.6％（15,159 MJ mm ha·1 h·1年？1）。 2090年代的MRI-CGCM3 RCP8.5场景。与基线相比，CCSM4 RCP4.5情景在2030年代的降雨侵蚀力下降了2.3％（8114 MJ mm ha？1 h？1年？1），下降了2.6％（8088 MJ mm ha？1）。 h？1年？1）到2050年代。但是，由于不同的GCM，对于未来的降雨侵蚀力估算，这可能被认为是不确定的。这项研究的结果有望在规划和实施合适的水土流失和沉积物控制计划，以适应槐Lu流域的气候变化时，帮助开发计划者和决策者。
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