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首页> 外文期刊>Atmospheric and Climate Sciences >A Probe for Consistency in CAPE and CINE During the Prevalence of Severe Thunderstorms:Statistical – Fuzzy Coupled Approach
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A Probe for Consistency in CAPE and CINE During the Prevalence of Severe Thunderstorms:Statistical – Fuzzy Coupled Approach

机译：雷雨暴发期间CAPE和CINE一致性的统计-模糊耦合方法

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Thunderstorms of pre-monsoon season (April – May) over Kolkata (22° 32’N, 88° 20’E), India are invariably accompanied with lightning flashes, high wind gusts, torrential rainfall, occasional hail and tornadoes which significantly affect the life and property on the ground and aviation aloft. The societal and economic impact due to such storms made accurate prediction of the weather phenomenon a serious concern for the meteorologists of India. The initiation of such storms requires sufficient moisture in lower troposphere, high surface temperature, conditional instability and a source of lift to initiate the convection. Convective available potential energy (CAPE) is a measure of the energy realized when conditional instability is released. It plays an important role in meso-scale convective systems. Convective inhibition energy (CINE) on the other hand acts as a possible barrier to the release of convection even in the presence of high value of CAPE. The main idea of the present study is to see whether a consistent quantitative range of CAPE and CINE can be identified for the prevalence of such thunderstorms that may aid in operational forecast. A statistical – fuzzy coupled method is implemented for the purpose. The result reveals that a definite range of CINE within 0 – 150 Jkg-1 is reasonably pertinent whereas no such range of CAPE depicts any consistency for the occurrence of severe thunderstorms over Kolkata. The measure of CINE mainly depends upon the altitude of the level of free convection (LFC), surface temperature (T) and surface mixing ratio (q). The box-and-whisker plot of LFC, T and q are drawn to select the most dependable parameter for the consistency of CINE in the prevalence of such thunderstorms. The skills of the parameters are evaluated through skill score analyses. The percentage error during validation with the observation of 2010 is estimated to be 0% for the range of CINE and 3.9% for CAPE.
机译：印度加尔各答（22°32'N，88°20'E）季风前季节（4月至5月）的雷暴总是伴随着闪电，强阵风，暴雨，偶尔的冰雹和龙卷风，对地面上的生命和财产以及高空飞行。由于此类暴风雨对社会和经济造成的影响使对天气现象的准确预测成为印度气象学家的严重关切。此类风暴的爆发需要在对流层较低的地方提供足够的水分，较高的地表温度，条件不稳定性以及发起对流的动力源。对流可用势能（CAPE）是释放条件不稳定性时实现的能量的度量。它在中尺度对流系统中起着重要作用。另一方面，即使在CAPE值很高的情况下，对流抑制能（CINE）也会成为释放对流的可能障碍。本研究的主要思想是查看是否可以确定CAPE和CINE的定量范围是否一致，以防此类雷暴的发生，从而有助于开展业务预报。为此，采用了统计-模糊耦合方法。结果表明，CINE的范围在0 – 150 Jkg-1之间是合理的，而CAPE的范围却没有描绘出加尔各答上空严重雷暴的发生的任何一致性。 CINE的度量主要取决于自由对流（LFC）的高度，表面温度（T）和表面混合比（q）。绘制LFC，T和q的箱须图以选择在此类雷暴天气中CINE一致性最可靠的参数。参数的技能通过技能得分分析进行评估。对于CINE范围，在进行2010年观察时验证期间的百分比误差估计为0 ％，对于CAPE范围，估计为3.9％。

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