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首页> 外文期刊>American Journal of Industrial and Business Management >Is There a Productivity Puzzle in the OECD Economies?&sup&1&/sup& Or Why Has Economic Recovery Since the Great Financial Crisis Not Produced Increased Inflation?
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Is There a Productivity Puzzle in the OECD Economies?&sup&1&/sup& Or Why Has Economic Recovery Since the Great Financial Crisis Not Produced Increased Inflation?

机译：OECD经济体中是否存在生产率难题？1 / sup？还是为什么自从发生大金融危机以来经济复苏没有导致通货膨胀加剧？

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This paper investigates whether there has been a structural shift in inflation since a recovery began in the OECD economies. F or policy purposes, it is important to be sure that such shifts are significant statistically, are likely to be sustained over the near future and be evenly distributed over the member economies so that no one of them is damaged by anti-inflation measures taken to help others. We approach the problem in two steps: first we examine the circumstantial and informal evidence, and then conduct formal statistical tests for structural changes in euro area inflation in 2015-2016. We find no evidence of a structural change. An even distribution of inflation criterion is the closest to being satisfied, but the other two are far from satisfied in any formal sense. The question remains: why has there been no inflation in the recovery since 2014? To answer that question, we demonstrate how low growth in real wages and self-reinforcing low productivity growth produces slow output growth and low inflation; and how low real wages and productivity in turn lead to low investment. This model fits the data well, down to the lack of labour and total factor productivity, and to the substitution of cheaper labour for excess capital stock. It implies a fall in investment spending (also seen in the data) that extends the period for which the low productivity-low inflation outcomes apply.
机译：本文调查了自经合组织经济体开始复苏以来，通货膨胀是否发生了结构性转变。从政策或政策的角度来看，重要的是要确保这种变化在统计上是显着的，并且在不久的将来很可能会持续下去，并平均分布在成员经济体中，从而使它们中的任何一个都不会因采取以下措施而受到损害。帮助别人。我们分两步处理这个问题：首先检查间接证据和非正式证据，然后对2015-2016年欧元区通胀的结构变化进行正式的统计检验。我们没有发现任何结构变化的证据。通货膨胀标准的均匀分布最接近于满足，但从任何形式上来讲，其他两个都远未满足。问题仍然存在：为什么自2014年以来复苏中没有出现通货膨胀？为了回答这个问题，我们证明了实际工资的低增长和自我强化的低生产率增长如何导致产出增长缓慢和通货膨胀率低;以及低的实际工资和生产力反过来导致低的投资。该模型很好地拟合了数据，包括缺乏劳动力和全要素生产率，以及将廉价劳动力替代为多余的资本存量。这意味着投资支出的下降（也可以从数据中看出），延长了低生产率，低通胀结果适用的时间。

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