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Retrospective public health impact of a quadrivalent influenza vaccine in the United States

机译:美国四价流感疫苗的回顾性公共卫生影响

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AbstractIntroductionVaccination is an effective preventive strategy against influenza. However, current trivalent influenza vaccines (TIVs) contain only one of the two influenza B lineages that circulate each year. Vaccine mismatches are frequent because predicting which one will predominate is difficult. Recently licensed quadrivalent influenza vaccines (QIVs) containing the two B lineages should address this issue. Our study estimates their impact by assessing what would have been the US public health benefit of routinely vaccinating with QIV in 2000–2013.MethodsWe developed a dynamic compartmental model that accounts for interactions between influenza B lineages (natural or vaccine-induced) and simulates the multiyear influenza dynamics for 2000–2013. Age-structured population dynamics, vaccine efficacy (VE) per strain, and weekly ramp-up of vaccination coverage are modeled. Sensitivity analyses were performed on VE, duration of immunity, and levels of vaccine-induced cross-protection between B lineages.ResultsAssuming a cross-protection of 70% of the VE of the matched vaccine, the model predicts 16% more B lineage cases prevented by QIV. Elderly (≥65 years) and young seniors (50–64 years) benefit most from QIV, with 21% and 18% reductions in B lineage cases. Reducing cross-protection to 50%, 30%, and 0% of the VE of the matched vaccine improves the relative benefit of QIV to 25%, 30%, and 34% less B lineage cases.ConclusionUsing a dynamic retrospective framework with real-life vaccine mismatch, our analysis shows that QIV routine vaccination in the United States has the potential to substantially reduce the number of influenza infections, even with relatively high estimates of TIV-induced cross-protection.
机译:摘要简介预防接种是一种有效的预防流感的策略。但是,当前的三价流感疫苗(TIV)仅包含每年传播的两种乙型流感谱系之一。疫苗失配是经常发生的,因为很难预测哪个将占主导地位。最近批准的包含两个B谱系的四价流感疫苗(QIV)应该解决此问题。我们的研究通过评估2000-2013年例行QIV常规接种对美国公共卫生的益处来评估其影响。方法我们开发了一个动态的隔室模型,该模型解释了乙型流感谱系(天然或疫苗诱导)之间的相互作用,并模拟了2000-2013年的多年流感动态。对年龄结构的种群动态,每种菌株的疫苗效力(VE)以及每周的疫苗接种覆盖率进行建模。对VE,B谱系之间的免疫持续时间和疫苗诱导的交叉保护水平进行了敏感性分析。结果假设相匹配疫苗的VE交叉保护率为70%,该模型预测可以预防的B谱系病例增加16%由QIV。老年人(≥65岁)和年轻人(50-64岁)从QIV中受益最大,B世系病例分别减少21%和18%。将交叉保护降低至匹配疫苗的VE的50%,30%和0%,可使QIV的相对获益降低B谱系病例的25%,30%和34%。如果生命疫苗不匹配,我们的分析表明,即使对TIV引起的交叉保护的估计值较高,美国的QIV常规疫苗接种也有可能大大减少流感感染的数量。

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