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首页> 外文期刊>International and Multidisciplinary Journal of Social Sciences >Role of Economic Development and Governance in Mitigating Insurgency: A Case Study of Tripura, India
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Role of Economic Development and Governance in Mitigating Insurgency: A Case Study of Tripura, India

机译：经济发展和治理在减轻叛乱中的作用：以印度Tripura为例

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摘要

The purpose of this paper is two folds: firstly, to analyze the short run and long run relationship between insurgency on the one hand and economic development and governance on the other and secondly, to determine the direction of causality between these three variables in Tripura, one of the conflict-ridden states in India during 1980-2005. With the application of auto-regressive distributed lag model (ARDL), an inverse relationship has been established which formalises the descriptive notions about the cointegration between insurgency on the one hand and economic development and governance on the other in the long run. No short run relationship was established between them. Going one step ahead, an endeavour has been made to capture both the economic development and governance as diagnostics for peace in our model. The study suggests that economic development brings down insurgency faster than that of governance. However, improvement in governance is more certain to scale down insurgency. Furthermore, the application of Granger Causality test suggests that there exists bidirectional causality between insurgency, economic development and governance taking 6 lag and onwards.
机译：本文的目的有两个方面：首先，一方面分析叛乱与经济发展与治理之间的短期和长期关系，其次，确定Tripura中这三个变量之间因果关系的方向，印度在1980-2005年间饱受冲突的国家之一。随着自回归分布滞后模型（ARDL）的应用，建立了逆向关系，这种关系反过来形式化了长期以来叛乱与经济发展与治理之间的协整关系的描述性概念。他们之间没有建立短期关系。向前迈进了一步，我们已在努力捕捉经济发展和治理问题，以此作为我们模型中和平的诊断手段。该研究表明，经济发展带来的反叛活动比治理速度更快。但是，更肯定地改善治理可以减少叛乱。此外，格兰杰因果关系检验的应用表明，叛乱，经济发展与治理之间存在双向因果关系，滞后时间为6个滞后。

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