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首页> 外文期刊>International Journal of Econometrics and Financial Management >Risk Control versus Risk Management in the Context of an Active Management: The Emerging Market Alternative
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Risk Control versus Risk Management in the Context of an Active Management: The Emerging Market Alternative

机译：积极管理中的风险控制与风险管理：新兴市场选择

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The regulatory environment to which financial institutions and specially banks are subjected has been evolving over the years. However, global financial sector stability has remained elusive with the global economy experiencing more financial crises in the past decade than the preceding decades. These financial tremors have had their epicenters in the advanced economies triggered by events in the banking industry. Further, economic growth in the developed economies has been very low and sometimes negative with close to 50 percent of the stock market value having been wiped out by the 2007/2008 global financial crisis. Against a backdrop of improved bank supervision and regulation courtesy of the Basel frameworks the Eurozone economies are reeling in recession. On the other hand the emerging and transitional economies have for the past close to a decade and a half showed resilient and outstanding performance with less stringent supervisory regimes enabling commercial banks to earn high profits. The profitability of the industry bolsters investment and recurrent expenditure all of which have the effect of fueling inflation and volatile exchange rates which accelerate economic growth, high interest and lending rates as well as market liquidity. These conditions provide opportunities for arbitrage trading that gives above average returns on investment as exemplified by the trend analysis. The high economic growth comes with attendant high inflation, lending rates and returns on government securities. The study set out to determine whether the high return environment within developing economies provides arbitrage investment opportunities and influences foreign investment by attracting foreign investment participation in government securities trading. The specific objectives were to demonstrate the adverse effects including the systemic vulnerabilities imposed by excess competition occasioned by thorough regulation and to empirically determine whether higher high exchange, lending, Tbill and Tbond rates attract foreign investment to developing economies with focus on Kenyan government securities. The study adopted secondary time series data analysis to establish whether or not lending rates, USD exchange rates, Tbond and Tbill rates affect foreign investment in government securities. The time series data analysis confirmed that in the long run, Tbond, USD exchange and lending rates all significantly influence the foreign investment in Kenya vide the Treasury bonds avenue. Based on these findings we conclude that emerging and transitional economies offer a perfect arbitrage investment opportunity for low return advanced economies.
机译：多年来，金融机构特别是银行所受到的监管环境在不断发展。但是，与过去几十年相比，过去十年中全球经济经历了更多的金融危机，因此全球金融部门的稳定性仍然难以捉摸。这些金融震荡在发达经济体中受到冲击，是由银行业的事件引发的。此外，发达经济体的经济增长一直很低，有时甚至是负增长，2007/2008年全球金融危机已经消灭了近50％的股票市场价值。在巴塞尔协议框架改善了银行监督和监管的背景下，欧元区经济正陷入衰退。另一方面，新兴经济体和转型经济体在过去近十五年的时间里表现出了韧性和出色的表现，监管制度的宽松程度使得商业银行能够获得高额利润。该行业的赢利能力可促进投资和经常性支出，所有这些都将助长通货膨胀和汇率波动，从而加速经济增长，高利率和贷款利率以及市场流动性。这些条件为套利交易提供了机会，从而获得了高于平均水平的投资回报，如趋势分析所示。经济的高速增长伴随着高通胀，贷款利率和政府证券收益。该研究旨在确定发展中经济体的高回报环境是否通过吸引外国投资参与政府证券交易来提供套利投资机会并影响外国投资。具体目标是证明不利影响，包括彻底监管带来的过度竞争带来的系统脆弱性，并凭经验确定较高的高汇率，贷款，Tbill和Tbond利率是否吸引外国投资到发展中经济体，重点放在肯尼亚政府证券上。该研究采用二级时间序列数据分析来确定借贷利率，美元汇率，Tbond和Tbill利率是否影响外国对政府证券的投资。时间序列数据分析证实，从长期来看，Tbond，美元汇率和贷款利率都将显着影响外国对肯尼亚在美国国库债券大道上的投资。根据这些发现，我们得出结论，新兴经济体和转型经济体为低回报先进经济体提供了完美的套利投资机会。

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