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Evaluation of Early Action Mechanisms in Peru Regarding Preparedness for El Ni?o

机译:秘鲁关于厄尔尼诺事件准备的早期行动机制评估

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In this article, we provide an impact evaluation of an intervention in Peru regarding preparedness for El Ni?o impacts in Picsi District of Chiclayo Province in Peru’s northwestern coastal Lambayeque region. This effort involved the provision of special kits that reduce the potential damage to homes as a consequence of rainfall and floods associated with an El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation event. Information was collected in 2016 when this Forecast-based Financing early action was activated by an El Ni?o forecast, and after a coastal El Ni?o actually struck in 2017. This dual database permits us to estimate the impact of the intervention on the damage level of homes by comparing those homes supported by the program with those homes not receiving pilot-program support. This comparison is achieved by using propensity score matching techniques, which identify the most comparable homes to the ones that were supported by the intervention. The main findings of the study suggest a positive impact of the program in terms of its effectiveness in mitigating the damage caused by the 2017 El Ni?o. These results suggest a drop in the scale of house damage (less damage) by around 63% for a home that received the modular kit treatment. When considering other specifications of the model, the decrease in the scale of house damage improves up to approximately 66%.
机译:在本文中,我们提供了一项针对秘鲁干预措施的效果评估,该干预措施涉及秘鲁西北沿海Lambayeque地区奇克拉约省Picsi区的厄尔尼诺事件影响的准备情况。这项工作包括提供特殊工具包,以减少由于厄尔尼诺-南方涛动事件引起的降雨和洪水对房屋造成的潜在破坏。信息是在2016年由El Ni?o的预测激活基于预测的融资早期行动时收集的,而在2017年实际发生沿海El Ni?o袭击之后。此双重数据库使我们能够估计干预措施对经济的影响。通过比较该计划支持的房屋和那些未获得试点计划支持的房屋,来评估房屋的损坏程度。这种比较是通过使用倾向得分匹配技术来实现的,该技术可以确定与干预措施支持的房屋最相近的房屋。该研究的主要发现表明,该计划在减轻2017年厄尔尼诺现象造成的损害方面的有效性方面具有积极影响。这些结果表明,对于接受模块化套件治疗的房屋,房屋的破坏程度(较小的破坏)降低了约63%。当考虑模型的其他规格时,房屋破坏规模的减少最多可提高约66%。

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