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Assessment of regional vulnerability to natural hazards in China using a DEA model

机译:利用DEA模型评估中国区域自然灾害脆弱性

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Abstract This paper presents a new method for quantifying regional vulnerability to natural hazards in China. In recent decades, the study of vulnerability has gained a position of centrality in natural hazards research. How to quantitatively assess vulnerability has raised much interest in academia. Researchers have proposed a variety of methods for quantitative assessment. But these methods are very sensitive to weights set for subindices. As a result, analytic results are often less convincing. A model based on data envelopment analysis (DEA) is used for the assessment of regional vulnerability to natural hazards in an attempt to improve existing analytical methods. Using a regional natural disaster system framework, this article constructs an input-output DEA model for the assessment of regional vulnerability, and takes China’s mainland as a case study area. The result shows that the overall level of vulnerability to natural hazards in mainland China is high. The geographical pattern is that vulnerability is highest in western China, followed by diminishing vulnerability in central China, and lowest vulnerability levels in eastern China. There is a negative correlation between the level of regional vulnerability and level of regional economic development. Generally speaking, the more economically developed a region, the lower its regional vulnerability.
机译:摘要本文提出了一种量化中国自然灾害区域脆弱性的新方法。在最近的几十年中,对脆弱性的研究在自然灾害研究中占据了中心位置。如何定量评估脆弱性引起了学术界的极大兴趣。研究人员提出了多种定量评估方法。但是这些方法对为子索引设置的权重非常敏感。结果,分析结果通常难以令人信服。基于数据包络分析(DEA)的模型用于评估区域对自然灾害的脆弱性,以试图改善现有的分析方法。本文使用区域自然灾害系统框架,构建了用于评估区域脆弱性的投入产出DEA模型,并以中国大陆为案例研究区域。结果表明,中国大陆对自然灾害的脆弱性总体水平很高。地理格局是,中国西部的脆弱性最高,其次是中国中部的脆弱性降低,而中国东部的脆弱性水平最低。区域脆弱性水平与区域经济发展水平之间存在负相关关系。一般而言,区域经济越发达,区域脆弱性就越低。

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