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Population prediction of purwanegara village, Indonesia using modified logistic model with migration factor

机译：带有迁移因子的改进逻辑模型在印度尼西亚Purwanegara村庄的人口预测

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摘要

Population growth model is a widely been used model to do an estimation and forecasting towards the population of peoples, animals, bac-teria and even in economics growth. Many studies have been carried out on population growth model concerning the factors of birth, death and carrying capacity in order to predict the number of population at certain area. From these studies there is only one study involved the constant value factor of migration as an input in the logistic model. Therefore contradicting with the above modified logistic model, in this study logistic model is modified by adding a migration factor as a function of population. This function takes into account the migration and the interaction between peoples that is limited to the carrying capacity of the environment. This model can be solved qualitatively using the analysis of equilibrium point and quantitatively using the separable variables method. This modified logistic model with migration factor has been applied in the population prediction of Purwanegara village in Central Java Province, Indonesia. Throughout the results, the modified logistic model with migration factor as a function of population gives a better result for population prediction of Purwanegara village in Central Java Province, Indonesia compared with logistic model.
机译：人口增长模型是一种广泛用于对人口，动物，细菌乃至经济增长进行估计和预测的模型。为了预测某个地区的人口数量，已经对人口增长模型进行了许多有关出生，死亡和承载力因素的研究。从这些研究中，只有一项研究涉及迁移的恒定价值因子作为逻辑模型的输入。因此，与上述修改后的逻辑模型相反，本研究中通过添加作为人口函数的迁移因子来修改逻辑模型。该功能考虑了移民和人与人之间的互动，而这种互动和互动仅限于环境的承载能力。使用平衡点分析可以定性地求解该模型，而使用可分离变量法可以定量地求解该模型。这种具有迁移因子的改进逻辑模型已应用于印度尼西亚中爪哇省Purwanegara村的人口预测。在整个结果中，与logistic模型相比，将迁移因子作为人口函数的改进logistic模型为印度尼西亚中爪哇省Purwanegara村的人口预测提供了更好的结果。

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