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首页> 外文期刊>International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health >The Impacts of Air Temperature on Accidental Casualties in Beijing, China
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The Impacts of Air Temperature on Accidental Casualties in Beijing, China

机译：气温对中国北京意外伤亡的影响

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摘要

Emergency room (ER) visits for accidental casualties, according to the International Classification of Deceases 10th Revision Chapters 19 and 20, include injury, poisoning, and external causes (IPEC). Annual distribution of 187,008 ER visits that took place between 2009 and 2011 in Beijing, China displayed regularity rather than random characteristics. The annual cycle from the Fourier series fitting of the number of ER visits was found to explain 63.2% of its total variance. In this study, the possible effect and regulation of meteorological conditions on these ER visits are investigated through the use of correlation analysis, as well as statistical modeling by using the Distributed Lag Non-linear Model and Generalized Additive Model. Correlation analysis indicated that meteorological variables that positively correlated with temperature have a positive relationship with the number of ER visits, and vice versa. The temperature metrics of maximum, minimum, and mean temperatures were found to have similar overall impacts, including both the direct impact on human mental/physical conditions and indirect impact on human behavior. The lag analysis indicated that the overall impacts of temperatures higher than the 50th percentile on ER visits occur immediately, whereas low temperatures show protective effects in the first few days. Accidental casualties happen more frequently on warm days when the mean temperature is higher than 14 °C than on cold days. Mean temperatures of around 26 °C result in the greatest possibility of ER visits for accidental casualties. In addition, males were found to face a higher risk of accidental casualties than females at high temperatures. Therefore, the IPEC-classified ER visits are not pure accidents; instead, they are associated closely with meteorological conditions, especially temperature.
机译：根据《国际死亡分类第十版》第19章和第20章，急诊室（ER）会因意外伤亡进行探视，包括受伤，中毒和外部原因（IPEC）。 2009年至2011年在中国北京进行的187,008次急诊就诊的年度分布显示出规律性而非随机性。傅立叶级数对急诊就诊次数的拟合得出的年度周期可以解释其总方差的63.2％。在这项研究中，通过使用相关分析以及使用分布式滞后非线性模型和广义加性模型的统计模型，研究了气象条件对这些ER访问的可能影响和调节。相关分析表明，与温度成正相关的气象变量与急诊就诊次数呈正相关，反之亦然。发现最高，最低和平均温度的温度指标具有相似的总体影响，包括对人类心理/身体状况的直接影响和对人类行为的间接影响。滞后分析表明，高于50％的温度对急诊就诊的总体影响立即发生，而低温在头几天表现出保护作用。平均温度高于14°C的温暖天比寒冷天更容易发生意外伤亡。平均温度约为26°C，导致意外伤亡的急诊就诊可能性最大。另外，在高温下，男性比女性面临更高的意外伤亡风险。因此，IPEC分类的急诊就诊并非纯属意外;相反，它们与气象条件（尤其是温度）紧密相关。

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