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首页> 外文期刊>International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health >Estimating Temperature-Mortality Exposure-Response Relationships and Optimum Ambient Temperature at the Multi-City Level of China
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Estimating Temperature-Mortality Exposure-Response Relationships and Optimum Ambient Temperature at the Multi-City Level of China

机译：估计中国多城市水平的温度-物质暴露-响应关系和最佳环境温度

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摘要

Few studies have explored temperature–mortality relationships in China, especially at the multi-large city level. This study was based on the data of seven typical, large Chinese cities to examine temperature-mortality relationships and optimum temperature of China. A generalized additive model (GAM) was applied to analyze the acute-effect of temperature on non-accidental mortality, and meta-analysis was used to merge data. Furthermore, the lagged effects of temperature up to 40 days on mortality and optimum temperature were analyzed using the distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM). We found that for all non-accidental mortality, high temperature could significantly increase the excess risk (ER) of death by 0.33% (95% confidence interval: 0.11%, 0.56%) with the temperature increase of 1 °C. Similar but non-significant ER of death was observed when temperature decreased. The lagged effect of temperature showed that the relative risk of non-accidental mortality was lowest at 21 °C. Our research suggests that high temperatures are more likely to cause an acute increase in mortality. There was a lagged effect of temperature on mortality, with an optimum temperature of 21 °C. Our results could provide a theoretical basis for climate-related public health policy.
机译：很少有研究探索中国的温度-死亡率关系，特别是在大型城市中。这项研究基于七个典型的中国大型城市的数据，以考察温度-死亡率关系和中国的最佳温度。应用广义加性模型（GAM）分析温度对非偶然死亡率的急性影响，并使用荟萃分析合并数据。此外，使用分布滞后非线性模型（DLNM）分析了长达40天的温度对死亡率和最佳温度的滞后影响。我们发现，对于所有非意外死亡，温度每升高1°C，高温都会使死亡的额外风险（ER）显着增加0.33％（95％置信区间：0.11％，0.56％）。当温度降低时，观察到相似的但非显着的死亡ER。温度的滞后效应表明，非意外死亡的相对风险在21°C时最低。我们的研究表明，高温更有可能导致死亡率急剧上升。温度对死亡率的影响滞后，最佳温度为21°C。我们的结果可以为与气候有关的公共卫生政策提供理论依据。

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