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首页> 外文期刊>International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health >Trends of Esophageal Cancer Mortality in Rural China from 1989 to 2013: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis
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Trends of Esophageal Cancer Mortality in Rural China from 1989 to 2013: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

机译：1989-2013年中国农村食管癌死亡率趋势：年龄-同期-队列分析

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Background : Esophageal cancer is one of the most common cancers in rural China. The aim of this study was to describe the time trends of esophageal cancer mortality in rural China and to better elucidate the causes of these trends. Methods : The mortality data were obtained from the World Health Organization Mortality Database and the China Health Statistical Yearbook Database. The mortality data were analyzed with age-period-cohort (APC) analysis. Results : Our study indicates that the Age-Standardized Mortality Rates (ASMRs) in rural China generally decreased from 1989 to 2003, and thereafter increased until the year 2008 in both sexes. After 2008, the ASMRs decreased again. The results of APC analysis suggest that the general decrease in esophageal cancer mortality in rural China from 1989 to 2003 might be caused by the downtrend of the cohort effects and period effects, while the general increase in mortality from 2004 to 2008 might be caused by the uptrend of the period effects. The decrease in mortality after 2008 may be relevant to the Four Trillion RMB Investment Plan launched by the Chinese Government. Conclusions : The declining cohort effects were probably related to the improvement of socioeconomic status in childhood and the decreasing consumptions of alcohol drinking and smoking, while the trends of the period effects were relevant to the changes in the dietary pattern. Our findings may help predict future changes in esophageal cancer mortality.
机译：背景：食道癌是中国农村地区最常见的癌症之一。这项研究的目的是描述中国农村地区食管癌死亡率的时间趋势，并更好地阐明这些趋势的原因。方法：死亡率数据来自世界卫生组织死亡率数据库和中国卫生统计年鉴数据库。使用年龄组（APC）分析来分析死亡率数据。结果：我们的研究表明，从1989年到2003年，中国农村地区的年龄标准化死亡率（ASMRs）总体上有所下降，此后直到2008年这两种性别都上升了。 2008年之后，ASMR再次下降。 APC分析的结果表明，1989年至2003年中国农村食管癌死亡率普遍下降可能是由于队列效应和期间效应的下降趋势引起的，而2004年至2008年死亡率的总体上升可能是由于队列效应和时期效应的下降引起的。周期效应的上升趋势。 2008年后死亡率的下降可能与中国政府启动的“四万亿元投资计划”有关。结论：队列效应的下降可能与儿童期社会经济状况的改善以及饮酒和吸烟的减少有关，而期间效应的趋势与饮食结构的变化有关。我们的发现可能有助于预测食管癌死亡率的未来变化。

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