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首页> 外文期刊>International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health >Predictiveness of Disease Risk in a Global Outreach Tourist Setting in Thailand Using Meteorological Data and Vector-Borne Disease Incidences
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Predictiveness of Disease Risk in a Global Outreach Tourist Setting in Thailand Using Meteorological Data and Vector-Borne Disease Incidences

机译：利用气象数据和媒介传染病发病率预测泰国全球外展旅游环境中疾病风险的可预测性

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摘要

Dengue and malaria are vector-borne diseases and major public health problems worldwide. Changes in climatic factors influence incidences of these diseases. The objective of this study was to investigate the relationship between vector-borne disease incidences and meteorological data, and hence to predict disease risk in a global outreach tourist setting. The retrospective data of dengue and malaria incidences together with local meteorological factors (temperature, rainfall, humidity) registered from 2001 to 2011 on Koh Chang, Thailand were used in this study. Seasonal distribution of disease incidences and its correlation with local climatic factors were analyzed. Seasonal patterns in disease transmission differed between dengue and malaria. Monthly meteorological data and reported disease incidences showed good predictive ability of disease transmission patterns. These findings provide a rational basis for identifying the predictive ability of local meteorological factors on disease incidence that may be useful for the implementation of disease prevention and vector control programs on the tourism island, where climatic factors fluctuate.
机译：登革热和疟疾是媒介传播的疾病，是世界范围内的主要公共卫生问题。气候因素的变化会影响这些疾病的发生。这项研究的目的是调查媒介传播的疾病发病率与气象数据之间的关系，从而预测全球外展游客环境中的疾病风险。本研究使用了2001年至2011年在泰国象岛登记的登革热和疟疾发病率的回顾性数据以及当地的气象因素（温度，降雨量，湿度）。分析了疾病发病率的季节性分布及其与当地气候因素的相关性。登革热和疟疾的疾病传播季节性模式有所不同。每月的气象数据和报告的疾病发生率均显示出良好的疾病传播方式预测能力。这些发现为确定当地气象因素对疾病发病率的预测能力提供了合理的基础，这可能对在气候因素波动的旅游岛上实施疾病预防和病媒控制计划很有用。

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