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Risk Assessment and Hierarchical Risk Management of Enterprises in Chemical Industrial Parks Based on Catastrophe Theory

机译:基于突变理论的化工园区企业风险评估与分级风险管理

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According to risk systems theory and the characteristics of the chemical industry, an index system was established for risk assessment of enterprises in chemical industrial parks (CIPs) based on the inherent risk of the source, effectiveness of the prevention and control mechanism, and vulnerability of the receptor. A comprehensive risk assessment method based on catastrophe theory was then proposed and used to analyze the risk levels of ten major chemical enterprises in the Songmu Island CIP, China. According to the principle of equal distribution function, the chemical enterprise risk level was divided into the following five levels: 1.0 (very safe), 0.8 (safe), 0.6 (generally recognized as safe, GRAS), 0.4 (unsafe), 0.2 (very unsafe). The results revealed five enterprises (50%) with an unsafe risk level, and another five enterprises (50%) at the generally recognized as safe risk level. This method solves the multi-objective evaluation and decision-making problem. Additionally, this method involves simple calculations and provides an effective technique for risk assessment and hierarchical risk management of enterprises in CIPs.
机译:根据风险系统的理论和化工行业的特点,建立了化工园区企业风险评估指标体系,其依据是风险的内在风险,防控机制的有效性和风险的脆弱性。受体。提出了一种基于巨灾理论的综合风险评估方法,对松木岛CIP地区十家主要化工企业的风险水平进行了分析。根据平均分配函数原理,化工企业的风险等级分为以下五个等级:1.0(非常安全),0.8(安全),0.6(通常被认为是安全的GRAS),0.4(不安全),0.2(非常不安全)。结果显示,有五家企业(50%)的风险等级为不安全,另外五家企业(50%)的风险等级为公认的。该方法解决了多目标评价与决策问题。此外,该方法涉及简单的计算,并为CIP中企业的风险评估和分层风险管理提供了有效的技术。

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