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首页> 外文期刊>International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health >Evaluating the Impact of Environmental Temperature on Global Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5N1 Outbreaks in Domestic Poultry
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Evaluating the Impact of Environmental Temperature on Global Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5N1 Outbreaks in Domestic Poultry

机译：评估环境温度对家禽全球高致病性禽流感（HPAI）H5N1爆发的影响

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The emergence and spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A virus subtype H5N1 in Asia, Europe and Africa has had an enormously socioeconomic impact and presents an important threat to human health because of its efficient animal-to-human transmission. Many factors contribute to the occurrence and transmission of HPAI H5N1 virus, but the role of environmental temperature remains poorly understood. Based on an approach of integrating a Bayesian Cox proportional hazards model and a Besag-York-Mollié (BYM) model, we examined the specific impact of environmental temperature on HPAI H5N1 outbreaks in domestic poultry around the globe during the period from 1 December 2003 to 31 December 2009. The results showed that higher environmental temperature was a significant risk factor for earlier occurrence of HPAI H5N1 outbreaks in domestic poultry, especially for a temperature of 25 °C. Its impact varied with epidemic waves (EWs), and the magnitude of the impact tended to increase over EWs.
机译：高致病性禽流感（HPAI）H5N1亚型病毒的出现和传播在亚洲，欧洲和非洲产生了巨大的社会经济影响，并由于其有效的人畜传播而对人类健康构成了重要威胁。许多因素导致HPAI H5N1病毒的发生和传播，但是对环境温度的作用仍然知之甚少。基于整合贝叶斯考克斯比例风险模型和Besag-York-Mollié（BYM）模型的方法，我们研究了环境温度对2003年12月1日至2004年全球家禽HPAI H5N1暴发的具体影响。 2009年12月31日。结果表明，较高的环境温度是在家禽中较早发生HPAI H5N1暴发的重要危险因素，尤其是在25°C的温度下。其影响随流行病波（EW）的不同而变化，并且影响的幅度往往比EW高。

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