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首页> 外文期刊>International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health >The Long-Term Relationship between Population Growth and Vegetation Cover: An Empirical Analysis Based on the Panel Data of 21 Cities in Guangdong Province, China
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The Long-Term Relationship between Population Growth and Vegetation Cover: An Empirical Analysis Based on the Panel Data of 21 Cities in Guangdong Province, China

机译：人口增长与植被覆盖的长期关系：基于广东省21个城市面板数据的实证分析

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摘要

It is generally believed that there is an inverse relationship between population growth and vegetation cover. However, reports about vegetation protection and reforestation around the World have been continuously increasing in recent decades, which seems to indicate that this relationship may not be true. In this paper, we have taken 21 cities in Guangdong Province, China as the study area to test the long-term relationship between population growth and vegetation cover, using an AVHRR NDVI data set and the panel cointegrated regression method. The results show that there is a long-term inverted N-shaped curve relationship between population growth and vegetation cover in the region where there are frequent human activities and the influence of climate change on vegetation cover changes is relatively small. The two turning points of the inverted N-shaped curve for the case of Guangdong Province correspond to 2,200 persons·km?2 and 3,820 persons·km?2, and they can provide a reference range for similar regions of the World. It also states that the population urbanization may have a negative impact on the vegetation cover at the early stage, but have a positive impact at the later stage. In addition, the Panel Error Correction Model (PECM) is used to investigate the causality direction between population growth and vegetation cover. The results show that not only will the consuming destruction effect and planting construction effect induced by the population growth have a great impact on vegetation cover changes, but vegetation cover changes in turn will also affect the population growth in the long term.
机译：一般认为，人口增长与植被覆盖之间存在反比关系。然而，近几十年来，有关世界各地植被保护和重新造林的报道不断增加，这似乎表明这种关系可能并非如此。本文以AVHRR NDVI数据集和面板协整回归方法，以中国广东省的21个城市为研究区域，测试了人口增长与植被覆盖之间的长期关系。结果表明，在人类活动频繁的地区，人口增长与植被覆盖之间存在长期的倒N型曲线关系，气候变化对植被覆盖变化的影响相对较小。对于广东省来说，倒N形曲线的两个转折点分别为2,200人·km？2和3820人·km？2，它们可以为世界类似地区提供参考范围。它还指出，人口城市化可能在初期对植被覆盖产生负面影响，但在后期则产生积极影响。此外，面板误差校正模型（PECM）用于调查人口增长与植被覆盖之间的因果关系。结果表明，人口增长引起的消费破坏效应和种植结构效应对植被覆盖度变化有很大影响，而植被覆盖度的变化反过来也会长期影响人口增长。

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