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首页> 外文期刊>International Journal of Erosion Control Engineering >Models for Prediction of the Effects of Hydrological and Basin Characteristics on Reservoir Sedimentation for Water Management in Thailand
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Models for Prediction of the Effects of Hydrological and Basin Characteristics on Reservoir Sedimentation for Water Management in Thailand

机译：泰国水文流域特征对水库泥沙淤积影响的预测模型

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Owing to recent climate and land use changes, which affect reservoir sedimentation, reductions in reservoir capacity and shortening of reservoir lifespan have occurred. Meanwhile, water resource management and planning strategies have becomes less effective. Such issues are likely to worsen unless sediment deposition can be predicted precisely and sedimentation can be prevented or controlled appropriately. Accordingly, a model for predicting changes in reservoir capacity due to changes in hydrological characteristics is necessary.The present study aims to assess the factors contributing to reservoir sedimentation in Thailand and to derive a predictive model of reservoir sedimentation using geomorphological factors and forest cover from 25 reservoirs throughout Thailand. In particular, mathematical statistical models predicting reservoir sedimentation (RS) were formulated through multiple regression analysis using data from these 25 reservoirs.The results of the study demonstrate that sediment volumes range from 0.0072 to 4.7218 million m3/year, with an average of 0.49 million m3/year. Six variables were found to have a significant effect on sedimentation in the model: annual volume of inflow (Q), average annual rainfall (R), drainage area (DA), relief ratio (Sr), compactness coefficient (Kc), and stream length ratio (Si). The most applicable equation for predicting RS for reservoirs in Thailand appears to be as follows:RS=exp{3.19007 + 0.00176R - 0.00087DA - 0.00065Cap + 0.03364WSA + 16.44675Sr - 1.29256Kc - 1.07294Si} R0.99986 DA0.00014This equation produced the highest adjusted R2 (0.9125) with the smallest standard error of estimate (0.4963) and highly significant in prediction. Thus, this model can be applied to predict annual sedimentation in other reservoirs in Thailand.This equation can also be applied to forecast the volume of sediment deposition in other reservoirs and ascertain the real water supply of a given reservoir. Accordingly, it can achieve reductions in operational costs through reservoir capacity surveys, reducing government budgets by an average of 1,900,000 baht per project, and can reduce the time required for each survey by an average of 14 months. The prediction results can be used in the simulation of reservoir operations, improving the efficiency of irrigation operations and ensuring the sustainable management of water resources.
机译：由于最近的气候和土地利用变化影响了水库的沉积，水库的容量减少，水库的寿命缩短了。同时，水资源管理和规划策略的有效性降低。除非可以准确地预测沉积物的沉积并且可以适当地防止或控制沉积，否则这些问题可能会恶化。因此，有必要建立一个模型来预测由于水文特征的变化而引起的库容变化。本研究旨在评估影响泰国水库沉积的因素，并利用地貌因素和森林覆盖率从25个模型中推导出储库沉降的预测模型。泰国各地的水库。特别是，利用这25个水库的数据，通过多元回归分析建立了预测水库泥沙淤积（RS）的数学统计模型，研究结果表明，泥沙量范围为0.0072至472.18万立方米/年，平均49万立方米/年。在该模型中，发现六个变量对沉积有显着影响：年流入量（Q），年平均降雨量（R），流域面积（DA），泄压比（Sr），压实系数（Kc）和河流长度比（Si）。用于预测泰国水库RS的最适用方程式如下：RS = exp {3.19007 + 0.00176R-0.00087DA-0.00065Cap + 0.03364WSA + 16.44675Sr-1.29256Kc-1.07294Si} R0.99986 DA0.00014This方程产生的调整后R2最高（0.9125），估计的标准误差最小（0.4963），并且预测意义重大。因此，该模型可用于预测泰国其他水库的年沉积量。该方程式还可用于预测其他水库的沉积物量并确定给定水库的实际供水量。因此，它可以通过水库容量调查实现运营成本的降低，每个项目的政府预算平均减少190万泰铢，并且每次调查所需的时间平均减少14个月。预测结果可用于水库调度模拟，提高灌溉效率，确保水资源的可持续管理。

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