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首页> 外文期刊>International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health >Global Scenarios of Air Pollutant Emissions from Road Transport through to 2050
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Global Scenarios of Air Pollutant Emissions from Road Transport through to 2050

机译：到2050年的全球公路运输空气污染物排放情景

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摘要

This paper presents global scenarios of sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and particulate matter (PM) emissions from road transport through to 2050, taking into account the potential impacts of: (1) the timing of air pollutant emission regulation implementation in developing countries; (2) global CO2 mitigation policy implementation; and (3) vehicle cost assumptions, on study results. This is done by using a global energy system model treating the transport sector in detail. The major conclusions are the following. First, as long as non-developed countries adopt the same vehicle emission standards as in developed countries within a 30-year lag, global emissions of SO2, NOx, and PM from road vehicles decrease substantially over time. Second, light-duty vehicles and heavy-duty trucks make a large and increasing contribution to future global emissions of SO2, NOx, and PM from road vehicles. Third, the timing of air pollutant emission regulation implementation in developing countries has a large impact on future global emissions of SO2, NOx, and PM from road vehicles, whereas there is a possibility that global CO2 mitigation policy implementation has a comparatively small impact on them.
机译：本文介绍了直至2050年道路运输的二氧化硫（SO2），氮氧化物（NOx）和颗粒物（PM）排放的全球情景，同时考虑了以下方面的潜在影响：（1）空气污染物排放法规的时机在发展中国家的实施; （2）全球二氧化碳减排政策的实施; （3）基于研究结果的车辆成本假设。这是通过使用详细处理运输部门的全球能源系统模型来完成的。主要结论如下。首先，只要非发达国家在30年的滞后时间内采用与发达国家相同的车辆排放标准，道路车辆的全球SO2，NOx和PM排放量将随着时间的推移而大幅减少。其次，轻型车辆和重型卡车对未来全球道路车辆的SO2，NOx和PM排放量做出了巨大且越来越大的贡献。第三，发展中国家实施空气污染物排放法规的时机对未来全球道路车辆的SO2，NOx和PM排放产生很大影响，而实施全球CO2减排政策对它们的影响可能较小。

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