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首页> 外文期刊>International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health >Temperature Variation and Heat Wave and Cold Spell Impacts on Years of Life Lost Among the Urban Poor Population of Nairobi, Kenya
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Temperature Variation and Heat Wave and Cold Spell Impacts on Years of Life Lost Among the Urban Poor Population of Nairobi, Kenya

机译：肯尼亚内罗毕城市贫困人口的温度变化，热浪和冷拼对失去生命年的影响

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Weather extremes are associated with adverse health outcomes, including mortality. Studies have investigated the mortality risk of temperature in terms of excess mortality, however, this risk estimate may not be appealing to policy makers assessing the benefits expected for any interventions to be adopted. To provide further evidence of the burden of extreme temperatures, we analyzed the effect of temperature on years of life lost (YLL) due to all-cause mortality among the population in two urban informal settlements. YLL was generated based on the life expectancy of the population during the study period by applying a survival analysis approach. Association between daily maximum temperature and YLL was assessed using a distributed lag nonlinear model. In addition, cold spell and heat wave effects, as defined according to different percentiles, were investigated. The exposure-response curve between temperature and YLL was J-shaped, with the minimum mortality temperature (MMT) of 26 °C. An average temperature of 21 °C compared to the MMT was associated with an increase of 27.4 YLL per day (95% CI, 2.7–52.0 years). However, there was no additional effect for extended periods of cold spells, nor did we find significant associations between YLL to heat or heat waves. Overall, increased YLL from all-causes were associated with cold spells indicating the need for initiating measure for reducing health burdens.
机译：极端天气与包括死亡率在内的不良健康后果相关。研究已经从过度死亡的角度研究了温度的死亡风险，但是，这种风险估计可能对决策者来说并不诱人，他们需要评估采取任何干预措施的预期收益。为了提供极端温度负担的进一步证据，我们分析了温度对两个城市非正式定居点中由于全因死亡率造成的寿命损失（YLL）的影响。 YLL是根据生存期在研究期间通过使用生存分析方法得出的。使用分布滞后非线性模型评估每日最高温度和YLL之间的关联。此外，还研究了根据不同百分位数定义的冷拼和热波效应。温度和YLL之间的暴露-响应曲线呈J形，最低死亡温度（MMT）为26°C。与MMT相比，平均温度为21°C，每天增加27.4 YLL（95％CI，2.7-52.0年）。但是，长时间的冷风并没有其他影响，我们也没有发现YLL与热浪或热浪之间有显着的联系。总体而言，因种种原因导致的YLL升高与寒冷天气有关，表明需要采取措施减少健康负担。

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