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Generalized Confidence Intervals and Fiducial Intervals for Some Epidemiological Measures

机译:某些流行病学测度的广义置信区间和基准区间

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For binary outcome data from epidemiological studies, this article investigates the interval estimation of several measures of interest in the absence or presence of categorical covariates. When covariates are present, the logistic regression model as well as the log-binomial model are investigated. The measures considered include the common odds ratio (OR) from several studies, the number needed to treat (NNT), and the prevalence ratio. For each parameter, confidence intervals are constructed using the concepts of generalized pivotal quantities and fiducial quantities. Numerical results show that the confidence intervals so obtained exhibit satisfactory performance in terms of maintaining the coverage probabilities even when the sample sizes are not large. An appealing feature of the proposed solutions is that they are not based on maximization of the likelihood, and hence are free from convergence issues associated with the numerical calculation of the maximum likelihood estimators, especially in the context of the log-binomial model. The results are illustrated with a number of examples. The overall conclusion is that the proposed methodologies based on generalized pivotal quantities and fiducial quantities provide an accurate and unified approach for the interval estimation of the various epidemiological measures in the context of binary outcome data with or without covariates.
机译:对于流行病学研究的二元结果数据,本文研究了在不存在或存在分类协变量的情况下,对几种感兴趣的度量进行的区间估计。当存在协变量时,将研究逻辑回归模型以及对数二项式模型。所考虑的措施包括多项研究的共同优势比(OR),需要治疗的人数(NNT)和患病率。对于每个参数,使用广义枢轴量和基准量的概念构造置信区间。数值结果表明,即使在样本量不大的情况下,如此获得的置信区间在保持覆盖率方面也表现出令人满意的性能。所提出的解决方案的一个吸引人的特征是它们不是基于似然性的最大化,因此没有与最大似然估计器的数值计算相关的收敛问题,尤其是在对数二项式模型的情况下。结果用许多实例说明。总体结论是,在具有或不具有协变量的二元结果数据的背景下,所提出的基于广义枢轴数量和基准数量的方法为各种流行病学测量的区间估计提供了一种准确而统一的方法。

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