...
  • 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health >Future Climate Data from RCP 4.5 and Occurrence of Malaria in Korea
【24h】

Future Climate Data from RCP 4.5 and Occurrence of Malaria in Korea

机译：来自RCP 4.5的未来气候数据和韩国疟疾的发生

获取原文
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

Since its reappearance at the Military Demarcation Line in 1993, malaria has been occurring annually in Korea. Malaria is regarded as a third grade nationally notifiable disease susceptible to climate change. The objective of this study is to quantify the effect of climatic factors on the occurrence of malaria in Korea and construct a malaria occurrence model for predicting the future trend of malaria under the influence of climate change. Using data from 2001–2011, the effect of time lag between malaria occurrence and mean temperature, relative humidity and total precipitation was investigated using spectral analysis. Also, a principal component regression model was constructed, considering multicollinearity. Future climate data, generated from RCP 4.5 climate change scenario and CNCM3 climate model, was applied to the constructed regression model to simulate future malaria occurrence and analyze the trend of occurrence. Results show an increase in the occurrence of malaria and the shortening of annual time of occurrence in the future.
机译：自从1993年在军事分界线重新出现以来，疟疾每年在韩国发生一次。疟疾被认为是易受气候变化影响的第三级全国应通报疾病。这项研究的目的是量化气候因素对韩国疟疾发生的影响，并建立一个疟疾发生模型来预测气候变化影响下疟疾的未来趋势。利用2001年至2011年的数据，使用光谱分析研究了疟疾发生与平均温度，相对湿度和总降水量之间的时滞影响。此外，考虑了多重共线性，构建了主成分回归模型。从RCP 4.5气候变化情景和CNCM3气候模型生成的未来气候数据被应用于构建的回归模型，以模拟未来疟疾的发生并分析其发生趋势。结果表明，疟疾的发生率增加，并且将来每年的发生时间缩短。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号