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首页> 外文期刊>International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health >Assessing the Role of Voluntary Self-Isolation in the Control of Pandemic Influenza Using a Household Epidemic Model
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Assessing the Role of Voluntary Self-Isolation in the Control of Pandemic Influenza Using a Household Epidemic Model

机译：使用家庭流行模型评估自愿自我隔离在大流行性流感控制中的作用

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摘要

In the absence of effective vaccines, antiviral drugs and personal protective measures, such as voluntary self-isolation, have been a part of preparedness plans for the next influenza pandemic. We used a household model to assess the effect of voluntary self-isolation on outbreak control when antiviral drugs are not provided sufficiently early. We found that the early initiation of voluntary self-isolation can overcome the negative effects caused by a delay in antiviral drug distribution when enough symptomatic individuals comply with home confinement at symptom onset. For example, for the baseline household reproduction number RH0 = 2:5, if delays of one or two days occur between clinical symptom development and the start of antiviral prophylaxis, then compliance rates of q ≥ 0:41 and q ≥ 0:6, respectively, are required to achieve the same level of effectiveness as starting antiviral prophylaxis at symptom onset. When the time to beginning voluntary self-isolation after symptom onset increases from zero to two days, this strategy has a limited effect on reducing the transmission of influenza; therefore, this strategy should be implemented as soon as possible. In addition, the effect of voluntary self-isolation decreases substantially with the proportion of asymptomatic infections increasing.
机译：在缺乏有效疫苗的情况下，抗病毒药物和个人防护措施（例如自愿自我隔离）已成为下一次流感大流行的防范计划的一部分。当没有足够早地提供抗病毒药物时，我们使用家庭模型评估了自愿自我隔离对暴发控制的影响。我们发现，如果有足够的症状个体在症状发作时遵从家庭禁闭措施，尽早开始自愿自我隔离就可以克服由抗病毒药物分配延迟所引起的负面影响。例如，对于基线家庭繁殖数RH0 = 2：5，如果从临床症状发展到开始进行抗病毒治疗之间发生一两天的延迟，则符合率q≥0:41和q≥0：6，分别需要达到与症状发作时开始抗病毒预防相同的效力水平。当症状发作后开始自愿自我隔离的时间从零增加到两天时，该策略对减少流感传播的效果有限;因此，应尽快实施该策略。此外，随着无症状感染的比例增加，自愿自我隔离的效果大大降低。

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