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首页> 外文期刊>International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health >The Association of Weather Variability and Under Five Malaria Mortality in KEMRI/CDC HDSS in Western Kenya 2003 to 2008: A Time Series Analysis
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The Association of Weather Variability and Under Five Malaria Mortality in KEMRI/CDC HDSS in Western Kenya 2003 to 2008: A Time Series Analysis

机译：肯尼亚西部KEMRI / CDC HDSS中2003年至2008年天气变异性与5岁以下疟疾死亡率的关联：时间序列分析

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摘要

Malaria is among the leading causes of mortality in the younger under-five group of children zero to four years of age. This study aims at describing the relationship between rainfall and temperature on under-five malaria or anaemia mortality in Kenya Medical Research Institute and United States Centers for Disease Control (KEMRI/CDC) Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS). This study was conducted through the ongoing KEMRI and CDC collaboration. A general additive model with a Poisson link function was fit to model the weekly association of lagged cumulative rainfall and average temperature on malaria/anemia mortality in KEMRI/CDC HDSS for the period 2003 to 2008. A trend function was included in the model to control for time trends and seasonality not explained by weather fluctuations. 95% confidence intervals was presented with estimates. Malaria or anemia mortality was found to be associated with changes in temperature and rainfall in the KEMRI HDSS, with a delay up to 16 weeks. The empirical estimates of associations describe established biological relationships well. This information, and particularly, the strength of the relationships over longer lead times can highlight the possibility of developing a predictive forecast with lead times up to 16 weeks in order to enhance preparedness to high transmission episodes.
机译：疟疾是五至五岁的五岁以下儿童死亡的主要原因之一。这项研究旨在描述肯尼亚医学研究所和美国疾病控制中心（KEMRI / CDC）健康与人口监测系统（HDSS）中五岁以下疟疾或贫血死亡率与降雨和温度之间的关系。这项研究是通过正在进行的KEMRI和CDC合作进行的。使用具有泊松链接函数的一般加性模型拟合2003年至2008年期间KEMRI / CDC HDSS的每周累积降雨和平均温度与疟疾/贫血死亡率的每周关联。该模型包括趋势函数以进行控制时间趋势和季节性无法用天气波动来解释。 95％的置信区间带有估计值。发现疟疾或贫血死亡率与KEMRI HDSS的温度和降雨量变化有关，最多可延迟16周。关联的经验估计很好地描述了已建立的生物学关系。该信息，尤其是较长交付时间的关系强度，可以凸显出开发长达16周交付时间的预测性预测的可能性，以增强对高传播事件的准备。

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