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首页> 外文期刊>International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health >Impact of Climate Change on Children’s Health in Limpopo Province, South Africa
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Impact of Climate Change on Children’s Health in Limpopo Province, South Africa

机译：南非林波波省气候变化对儿童健康的影响

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This paper examines the impact of climate change on children’s health, in the Limpopo Province of South Africa. Twenty one years climatic data were collected to analyse climatic conditions in the province. The study also employs 12 years hospital records of clinically diagnosed climate-related ailments among children under 13 years to examine the incidence, spatio-temporal, age and sex variations of the diseases. Regression analysis was employed to examine the relationships between climatic parameters and incidence of diseases and also to predict distribution of disease by 2050. The results show that the most prevalent diseases were diarrhea (42.4%), followed by respiratory infection (31.3%), asthma (6.6%) and malaria (6.5%). The incidence varied within city, with the high density areas recording the highest proportion (76.7%), followed by the medium (9.4%) and low (2.5%) density residential areas. The most tropical location, Mussina, had the highest incidence of the most prevalent disease, diarrhea, with 59.4%. Mortality rate was higher for males (54.2%). Analysis of 21 years of climatic data show that maximum temperature is positively correlated with years in four cities with r coefficients of 0.50; 0.56, 0.48 and 0.02, thereby indicating local warming. Similarly rainfall decreased over time in all the cities, with r ranging from ?0.02 for Bela Bela to r = 0.18 for Makhado. Results of the regression analysis show that 37.9% of disease incidence is accounted for by the combined influence of temperature and rainfall.
机译：本文研究了南非林波波省气候变化对儿童健康的影响。收集二十一年的气候数据以分析该省的气候条件。这项研究还采用了12年的13岁以下儿童临床诊断的与气候有关的疾病的医院记录，以检查该疾病的发生率，时空，年龄和性别变化。回归分析用于检验气候参数与疾病发生率之间的关系，并预测到2050年疾病分布。结果表明，最普遍的疾病是腹泻（42.4％），其次是呼吸道感染（31.3％），哮喘（6.6％）和疟疾（6.5％）。城市内的发病率各不相同，高密度地区的比例最高（76.7％），其次是中密度（9.4％）和低密度（2.5％）的居民区。热带地区Mussina是最普遍的疾病腹泻，发生率最高，为59.4％。男性死亡率较高（54.2％）。对21年气候数据的分析表明，四个城市的最高温度与年数呈正相关，r系数为0.50。 0.56、0.48和0.02，表明局部变暖。同样，所有城市的降雨都随时间减少，r范围从Bela Bela的0.02到Makhado的r = 0.18。回归分析的结果表明，温度和降雨的综合影响占疾病发生率的37.9％。

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