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Nigeria’s External Debt and Economic Growth: An Error Correction Approach

机译:尼日利亚的外债与经济增长:一种错误纠正方法

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This study investigates the relationship between Nigeria’s external debt and economic growth, between 1975 and 2006. The choice of period was guided by data availability and the the escalation of Nigeria’s external debt. Econometric evidence revealed stationarity of the variables at their first difference while the Johansen cointegration approach also confirms the existence of one cointegrating relationship at the 1 percent and 5 percent level of significance. In addition, error correction estimates revealed that external debt has negative relationship with economic growth in Nigeria. For example, a one per cent increase in external debt resulted in a decrease of 0.027 per cent in Gross Domestic Product, while a 1 per cent increase in total debt service resulted to 0.034 per cent (decrease) in Gross Domestic Product. These relationships were both found to be significant at the ten per cent level. In addition, the pairwise Granger Causality test revealed that uni-directional causality exists between external debt service payment and economic growth at the 10 percent level of significance. Also, external debt was found to granger cause external debt service payment at the 1 percent level of significance. Statistical interdependence was however found between external debt and economic growth. In order to ameliorate the negative influence of external debt on economic growth, debt accumulation for projects must be matched with the timing of repayment. Nigeria must be concerned about the absorptive capacity. Consideration about low debt to GDP, low debt service/GDP capacity ratios should guide future debt negotiations. Finally the portfolio of debt must be diversified in terms of sources and types to avoid harmful concentration and a reoccurrence to the past.
机译:这项研究调查了1975年至2006年之间尼日利亚外债与经济增长之间的关系。时期的选择取决于数据的可获得性和尼日利亚外债的升级。计量经济学证据表明,变量在它们的第一个差异处是平稳的,而约翰逊协整方法也证实了在1%和5%显着性水平上存在一种协整关系。此外,错误更正估计显示,外债与尼日利亚的经济增长负相关。例如,外债增加1%,国内生产总值减少0.027%,还本付息总额增加1%,国内生产总值减少0.034%。发现这些关系在百分之十的水平上都是重要的。此外,成对的格兰杰因果关系检验表明,外债偿付与经济增长之间存在单向因果关系,显着性水平为10%。此外,还发现外债增加了导致外债偿付的重要程度,为1%。但是,发现外债与经济增长之间存在统计上的相互依存关系。为了减轻外债对经济增长的负面影响,项目的债务积累必须与还款时间相匹配。尼日利亚必须关注其吸收能力。考虑到低债务占GDP的比重,低债务偿还率/ GDP容量比应指导未来的债务谈判。最后,债务的投资组合必须在来源和类型方面进行多样化,以避免有害的集中和再次发生。

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