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首页> 外文期刊>International Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences >Maize (Zea Mays L.) Productivity in Moist Mid-Highlands of Ethiopia Under Projected Climate Change: A Case Study of Ambo District
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Maize (Zea Mays L.) Productivity in Moist Mid-Highlands of Ethiopia Under Projected Climate Change: A Case Study of Ambo District

机译：气候变化预测下埃塞俄比亚中部高湿地区玉米（Zea Mays L.）的生产力：以安博区为例

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摘要

Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) was calibrated and evaluated to simulate maize (zea mays L.) var. BH660 under current and future climate in Ethiopia under moist mid-highlands of Ethiopia around Ambo Zuria district. Simulations for both current and future periods were run assuming present technology, current varieties and current agronomy packages to investigate rain-fed Maize yield responses. Simulations was made using downscaled weather data from five General Circulation Models (GCMs) under the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) and two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) by mid-century show a mixture of increase and decrease in median Maize yields. Five GCMs project yields to increase by 5% - 23.0% and one GCM show a decrease by 2% - 9%. Model simulations under the remaining three GCMs give contrasting results of increase and decrease.
机译：对农业技术转让决策支持系统（DSSAT）进行了校准和评估，以模拟玉米（zea mays L.）变种。埃塞俄比亚当前和未来气候下的BH660，位于埃塞俄比亚Ambo Zuria地区附近潮湿的中高地之下。假设当前的技术，当前的品种和当前的农学软件包对当前和未来的时期进行了模拟，以研究雨育玉米的产量响应。在世纪中叶之前，使用耦合模式比对项目第5阶段（CMIP5）和两个代表性浓度路径（RCP 4.5和8.5）下的五个通用环流模型（GCM）的降尺度天气数据进行了模拟，结果显示出增加和减少的混合玉米单产中位数。五个GCM的项目收益率将提高5％-23.0％，而一个GCM的收益率将下降2％-9％。其余三个GCM下的模型仿真给出了增加和减少的对比结果。

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