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Asian Financial Crisis: An Analysis of the Contagion and Volatility Effects in the Case of Malaysia

机译:亚洲金融危机:以马来西亚为例的传染性和波动性影响分析

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The emergence of the Asian financial crisis in July 1997 had a tremendous impact on the economies of the Asian countries. This study aims at linking the contagion theory and the crisis faced in Malaysia with more emphasis on the effect of the contagion volatility in the currency exchange market. This research uses the co-relation analysis, models of ARCH, GARCH and also GJR-GARCH in demonstrating the link. The results show that the crisis in Malaysia was not merely due to the weakness in its economic fundamentals, but also due to the contagion and volatility effects particularly originated from Thailand and Singapore. This study suggests the need for a more systematic management system with improved transparency in the financial sector even though the effect of the crisis contagion could hardly be prevented.
机译:1997年7月亚洲金融危机的出现对亚洲国家的经济产生了巨大影响。这项研究旨在将传染理论与马来西亚面临的危机联系起来,并更加强调传染波动在货币交换市场中的影响。本研究使用关联关系分析,ARCH,GARCH和GJR-GARCH模型来演示链接。结果表明,马来西亚的危机不仅是由于其经济基本面的疲软,而且还归因于蔓延和波动性影响,特别是源自泰国和新加坡。这项研究表明,即使很难避免危机蔓延的影响,也需要建立一个更加系统化的管理体系,以提高金融部门的透明度。

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