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Oil Price Volatility, Global Financial Crisis and The Month-of-the-Year Effect

机译:油价波动,全球金融危机和月度影响

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This paper investigates the month-of-the-year effect in the UK Brent crude oil market using the GARCH (1,5) and GJR-GARCH (1,5) models in the light of Asian financial crisis and the global financial crisis using daily data over the period, January 4, 1988 and May 27, 2009. The result shows the presence of the month-of-the-year effect in volatility but not in the return in the oil market. However, the pattern of significance of monthly effect in volatility is affected by the choice of model. The significant month-of-the-year effect on volatility may be in line with information availability theory The result shows that the Asian financial crisis has an impact on the oil price return series while the global financial crisis has no impact on oil price returns. The Asian financial crisis and global financial crisis did not account for the sudden change in variance.
机译:鉴于亚洲金融危机和全球金融危机,本文使用GARCH(1,5)和GJR-GARCH(1,5)模型调查了英国布伦特原油市场的月度效应。 1988年1月4日和2009年5月27日的每日数据。结果显示波动率存在月度影响,而石油市场回报率不存在。但是,波动率每月影响的显着性模式受模型选择的影响。每月对波动率的重大影响可能与信息可用性理论相符。结果表明,亚洲金融危机对油价回报序列有影响,而全球金融危机对油价回报没有影响。亚洲金融危机和全球金融危机并未说明方差的突然变化。

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