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Discriminant Analysis and Firms’ Bankruptcy: Evidence from European SMEs

机译：判别分析与企业破产：来自欧洲中小企业的证据

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Using two research methodologies - the Altman’s z-score discriminant analysis, in the revised version referring to non-listed firms, and the Bayesian approach Diagnostic Distribution - the paper investigates the possibility of discriminating between healthy and bankrupt European SMEs based on financial statements and using a Bayesian discriminant model inspired by Altman’s model. It also aims to verify whether the geographic location of European SMEs influences the ability to discriminate between healthy versus bankrupt firms. The work finds a significant homogeneity regarding the capability of the new discriminant models to classify healthy and bankrupt SMEs within the Euro Area and in different geographic locations. The empirical observations confirm that financial statements are a relevant channel by which SMEs communicate information to the financial system, even if they cannot provide all the information that allows for healthy and bankrupt SMEs to be distinguished.
机译：本文使用两种研究方法-修正版中针对非上市公司的Altman's z-score判别分析和贝叶斯方法Diagnostic Distribution-研究了基于财务报表和财务状况区分健康和破产欧洲SME的可能性受Altman模型启发的贝叶斯判别模型。它还旨在验证欧洲中小型企业的地理位置是否影响区分健康企业和破产企业的能力。这项工作在新的判别模型对欧元区和不同地理位置的健康和破产中小企业进行分类的能力方面发现了很大的同质性。经验观察证实，财务报表是中小企业向财务系统传达信息的相关渠道，即使它们无法提供所有可以区分健康和破产中小企业的信息。

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