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首页> 外文期刊>International Journal of Intelligence Science >Using Artificial Neural Network Modeling in Forecasting Revenue: Case Study in National Insurance Company/Iraq
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Using Artificial Neural Network Modeling in Forecasting Revenue: Case Study in National Insurance Company/Iraq

机译：使用人工神经网络建模预测收入：国家保险公司/伊拉克的案例研究

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摘要

There are few changes that took place in Iraqin many fields during the past few years; the financial aspect is one of the fields that undergone this change. The change has positive impact because it increases the revenue inIraqfrom the oil exports. The National Insurance Company is one of many companies that belongs to the Ministry of Finance inIraqand has affected directly from this change in term of increasing the number of the insurers which we will discuss in this research. The aim of this research is to forecast the insurance premiums revenue of the National Insurance Company between the years 2012 to 2053 using Artificial Neural Network based on the actual annual data of the insurance premiums revenue between the years 1970 to 2011. The data analyses results of this research show that the growth indicator of the insurance premiums revenue for the next 41 years is approximately 120%, the Mean Squared Error is the average squared difference between outputs and targets. Lower values are better. Zero means no error and the regression values are very high. The estimations and forecasts of the insurance premiums revenue using Artificial Neural Network confirmed to be strong and useful to deploy it for forecasting the insurance premiums revenue.
机译：过去几年中，伊拉克在许多领域发生的变化很少。财务方面是发生此变化的领域之一。这一变化具有积极影响，因为它增加了伊拉克从石油出口中获得的收入。国家保险公司是伊拉克财政部众多公司中的一家，在增加我们将在本研究中讨论的保险公司数量方面，直接受到了这一变化的影响。本研究的目的是使用人工神经网络，根据1970年至2011年之间的实际年度保费收入数据，预测国家保险公司在2012年至2053年之间的保费收入。这项研究表明，未来41年的保险费收入增长指标约为120％，均方误差是产出与目标之间的均方差。值越低越好。零表示没有错误，回归值非常高。使用人工神经网络对保险费收入的估计和预测被证实是强大且有用的，可将其用于预测保险费收入。

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