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On Atmospheric-Oceanic-Land Temperature Variability and Trends

机译：大气-海洋-陆地温度的变化及其趋势

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The reported overall rise in global surface temperatures since the latter 19th Century is viewed largely as an atmospheric phenomena. However, we show that the global ocean is an important component in determining global surface temperatures. Via an empirical, mathematical methodology, we reveal the intrinsic modes of variability of planetary temperatures over the past 160 years, and find periods of cooling and warming, with multiple modes of variability; seasonal, inter-annual, decadal, multi-decadal and an overall warming trend. Our calculated overall rate of warming differs significantly from the estimate of the Intergovernmental Program on Climate Change, as well as the Nongovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We also investigate the modes of variability of recognized climate factors, and find a previously unreported 140 year cycle in two climate system data sets. A relatively large amplitude 60 - 70 year cycle mode appears in all of the climate factors, and may be related to the time scale of the oceanic Meridional Overturning Circulation. This and other oceanic features may modulate global surface temperatures. An empirical relationship between fossil fuel burning and the global surface temperature anomaly time series overall trend emerges from our reduction of the non-stationary, non-linear data.
机译：自19世纪后期以来，据报道全球表面温度总体上升，这在很大程度上被视为一种大气现象。但是，我们表明，全球海洋是确定全球地表温度的重要组成部分。通过经验，数学方法，我们揭示了过去160年中行星温度变化的内在模式，并找到了具有多种变化模式的降温和增温时期。季节，年际，年代际，十年际和总体变暖趋势。我们计算出的总体升温速率与政府间气候变化计划以及非政府气候变化专门委员会的估算值有很大差异。我们还研究了公认的气候因素的变化模式，并在两个气候系统数据集中找到了以前未报告的140年周期。在所有气候因素中都出现了一个相对较大的60-70年周期模式，这可能与海洋子午向翻转循环的时间尺度有关。这种和其他海洋特征可能会调节全球地表温度。通过减少非平稳，非线性数据，可以得出化石燃料燃烧与全球表面温度异常时间序列总体趋势之间的经验关系。

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