Background: To assess the caries risk among 12-years old children using the Cariogram and to evaluate it by comparing with the actual change in DMFT and DMFS over a period of two year.Methods: A two year prospective study was conducted among 12 years age group school going children in Davangere city. At the baseline relevant and required information regarding the oral hygiene, diet, fluoride usage were obtained using a specially prepared pro forma and the saliva samples were collected from study subjects and the required microbiological analysis was done, as per the instructions of Cariogram version 1997. Caries experience was assessed using DMFT and DMFS index. Re-examination was done after two years and caries increment was calculated. The data so obtained was fed into the Cariogram software based on which they were divided in five groups which were; 0-20% (high risk), 21-40%, 41-60%, 61-80% and 81-100% "Chance of avoiding caries". The caries risk profile generated by the software was compared with caries increment over two years and subjected to statistical analysis.Results: Eighty nine point twenty nine percent of the children in the very low risk group as predicted by Cariogram at baseline did not develop new caries lesions by the end of two years follow-up. Higher risk children at baseline developed higher number of new carious lesions.Conclusions: Cariogram can be a reliable tool in caries prediction. It can aid in identifying different risk groups in a community and developing preventive strategies for reducing caries risk in children.
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