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首页> 外文期刊>International Journal of Statistics and Applications >Decision Tree as a Predictive Modeling Tool for Auto Insurance Claims
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Decision Tree as a Predictive Modeling Tool for Auto Insurance Claims

机译：决策树作为汽车保险索赔的预测建模工具

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摘要

The objective of this study is to develop a predictive model that can predict the likelihood of claim given some possible risk factors on the occurrence of claims from the insurance industry. The decision trees analysis was adopted and a predictive model was developed. The model developed took into account the class of portfolios at the individual and corporate policy levels. The model also considers vehicle usage such as private or commercial. The age of vehicle and age of policyholder were the main contributing risk factors predicting the occurrence of motor claims for both individual and cooperate policy holders. It was established that corporate policyholders with vehicles aged up to 8 years have a higher probability of claim. Whilst individual policyholders between ages 18 to 48 years have a high probability of making a claim as compared to older policyholders aged above 48 years when other conditions remain the same.
机译：这项研究的目的是开发一种预测模型，该模型可以在给定保险业索赔发生的某些可能风险因素的情况下预测索赔的可能性。通过决策树分析，并建立了预测模型。开发的模型考虑了个人和公司政策层面的投资组合类别。该模型还考虑了私人或商用车辆的使用情况。车辆年龄和保单持有人年龄是预测个人和合作保单持有人发生汽车索赔的主要风险因素。可以确定的是，拥有车辆长达8年的公司保单持有人有更高的索赔可能性。尽管年龄在18至48岁之间的个人投保人与其他年龄保持不变的48岁以上的老年投保人相比，提出索赔的可能性很高。

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