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Modelling and Forecasting Teledensity Using Univariate Time Series Models: Evidence from Nigeria

机译：使用单变量时间序列模型建模和预测电话密度：来自尼日利亚的证据

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Teledensity in Nigeria has witnessed unprecedented growth in recent years. The growing demand for mobile data services in Nigeria’s telecommunication industry is expected to boost government revenue at a period of dwindling in oil prices. Hence, it is imperative to examine the benefits, challenges and forecast future trend of teledensity in Nigeria. This paper seeks the most appropriate specification to analyse and forecast a realization of Nigeria’s teledensity using monthly time series from 2000 to 2015. We employed the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) to model the dynamic features in the teledensity data. Our results clearly indicate that the ARIMA (1, 1, ||1, 2, 3, 4, 9||) is found to provide the best satisfactory fit in the class of the estimated models. The fitted ARIMA model passed all the diagnostic tests at conventional level of significance. The forecasted values indicate that the Nigeria’s teledensity will continue to increase over time. Howbeit, the trend analysis indicates that the rate of growth of secured internet in Nigeria is quite dawdling. With the growing threats of cyber-criminal activities associated with the increasing teledensity, we therefore, urge the National Assembly to expedite actions towards the speedy passage of the Cyber Crime Bill. Furthermore, the National Assembly needs to provide legislative backing to the protection of telecommunication infrastructures by expediting actions regarding the passage of the Critical National Infrastructure (CNI) Bill as this will help to boost the growth witnessed in the telecommunication industry and increased the revenue base of the government.
机译：近年来，尼日利亚的电话密度目睹了前所未有的增长。在石油价格下滑的时期，尼日利亚电信行业对移动数据服务的需求不断增长，预计将增加政府收入。因此，必须检查尼日利亚电信密度的好处，挑战和预测未来的趋势。本文寻求最合适的规范，以分析和预测从2000年到2015年使用每月时间序列实现的尼日利亚电信密度。我们使用自回归综合移动平均线（ARIMA）对电信密度数据中的动态特征进行建模。我们的结果清楚地表明，在估计的模型类别中，发现ARIMA（1、1，|| 1、2、3、4、9 ||）提供了最佳的满意拟合。拟合的ARIMA模型通过了常规意义上的所有诊断测试。预测值表明，尼日利亚的电话密度将随着时间的推移继续增加。但是，趋势分析表明，尼日利亚安全互联网的增长速度十分缓慢。因此，随着与电话密度增加有关的网络犯罪活动的威胁越来越大，我们敦促国民议会加快行动，以迅速通过《网络犯罪法案》。此外，国民议会需要通过加快通过《关键国家基础设施（CNI）法案》的行动，为保护电信基础设施提供立法支持，因为这将有助于促进电信行业的增长并增加电信行业的收入基础。政府。

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