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首页> 外文期刊>International Journal of Statistics and Applications >Application of ARIMA Models in Forecasting Monthly Average Surface Temperature of Brong Ahafo Region of Ghana
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Application of ARIMA Models in Forecasting Monthly Average Surface Temperature of Brong Ahafo Region of Ghana

机译：ARIMA模型在加纳布隆阿哈福地区月平均气温预测中的应用

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摘要

The state of global pandemonium of the [1] report on climate change has necessitated much research interest on the issue. The application of statistical techniques is crucial in understanding phenomena and greatly influences decision making. ARIMA (1,0,0) (0,1,2)(12) with AIC = 0.07868287, AICc = 0.08430456, BIC = -0.8801646 and σ2 = 0.3898) has been identified as an appropriate model for predicting monthly average surface temperature for the Brong Ahafo (BA) Region of Ghana using 1975 to 2009 data from the Department of Meteorology and Climatology in the BA Region. The average surface temperature observed lies between 23°C and 32°C for the Brong Ahafo region all year. The month of February records the highest average surface temperature in the region, with July and August sharing spot as the months that usually record the lowest average surface temperature. The mean yearly surface temperature over the period was quite erratic however a decreasing trend was from 2007 to 2009. It is the hope that when adopted by the Ghana Metrological Agency and other relevant governmental organisations, it will in the long run help in accurate forecasting and education of the populace on surface temperature.
机译：[1]报告中关于气候变化的全球泛滥状况已引起对该问题的大量研究兴趣。统计技术的应用对于理解现象至关重要，并极大地影响决策。 ARIMA（1,0,0）（0,1,2）（12），AIC = 0.07868287，AICc = 0.08430456，BIC = -0.8801646和σ 2 = 0.3898）已被确定为使用加纳地区气象和气候部门的1975年至2009年数据预测加纳布隆阿哈福（BA）地区月平均表面温度的合适模型。全年在布隆阿哈福地区观测到的平均表面温度在23°C至32°C之间。 2月是该地区平均最高温度的月份，而7月和8月是通常记录最低最低平均温度的月份。此期间的年平均地表温度相当不稳定，但是从2007年到2009年呈下降趋势。希望加纳计量局和其他相关政府组织采用该方法，从长远来看将有助于准确的预测和预测。对平民进行表面温度教育。

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