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Reconciling findings on the employment effect of disability insurance

机译：调和残疾保险对就业的影响的调查结果

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Abstract Over the last 25?years, the Social Security Disability Insurance Program (DI) has grown dramatically. During the same period, employment rates for men with work limitations showed substantial declines in both absolute and relative terms. While the timing of these trends suggests that the expansion of DI was a major contributor to employment decline among this group, raising questions about the targeting of disability benefits, studies using denied applicants suggest a more modest role of the DI expansion. To reconcile these findings, we decompose total employment changes into population and employment changes for three categories: DI beneficiaries, denied applicants, and non-applicants. Our results show that during the early 1990s, the growth in DI can fully explain the employment decline for men only under an extreme assumption about the employment potential of beneficiaries. For the period after the mid-1990s, we find little role for the DI program in explaining the continuing employment decline for men with work limitations. JEL codes I3, J2
机译：摘要在过去的25年中，社会保障残疾保险计划（DI）迅速发展。在同一时期，受工作限制的男性的就业率在绝对和相对方面均出现大幅下降。这些趋势的时机表明，直接投资的扩大是导致这一群体就业下降的主要因素，这引发了针对残疾津贴的问题，但对被拒绝申请人的研究表明，直接投资的扩大作用较小。为了与这些发现相一致，我们将总就业变化分解为人口和就业变化三类：直接投资受益人，被拒绝的申请人和非申请人。我们的结果表明，在1990年代初期，仅在对受益人的就业潜力有极端假设的情况下，DI的增长才能完全解释男性的就业下降。在1990年代中期以后的时期，我们发现DI计划在解释工作受限男性持续就业下降方面几乎没有作用。 JEL代码I3，J2

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