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首页> 外文期刊>Eastern Mediterranean Health Journal: Al-Magallat al-Sihhiyyat li-Sarq al-Mutawassit >Modelling of seasonal influenza and estimation of the burden in Tunisia
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Modelling of seasonal influenza and estimation of the burden in Tunisia

机译：突尼斯季节性流感建模和负担估算

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摘要

The burden of influenza was estimated from surveillance data in Tunisia using epidemiological parameters of transmission with WHO classical tools and mathematical modelling. The incidence rates of influenza-associated influenza-like illness (ILI) per 100 000 were 18 735 in 2012/2013 season; 5536 in 2013/14 and 12 602 in 2014/15. The estimated proportions of influenza-associated ILI in the total outpatient load were 3.16%; 0.86% and 1.98% in the 3 seasons respectively. Distribution of influenza viruses among positive patients was A(H3N2) 15.5%; A(H1N1)pdm2009 39.2%; and B virus 45.3% in 2014/2015 season. From the estimated numbers of symptomatic cases, we estimated that the critical proportions of the population that should be vaccinated were 15%, 4% and 10% respectively. Running the model for the different values of R0, we quantified the number of symptomatic clinical cases, the clinical attack rates, the symptomatic clinical attack rates and the number of deaths. More realistic versions of this model and improved estimates of parameters from surveillance data will strengthen the estimation of the burden of influenza.
机译：流感的负担是根据突尼斯的监测数据使用世卫组织经典工具和数学模型通过传播的流行病学参数估计的。 2012/2013年度每10万人的流感相关流感样疾病（ILI）的发生率为18 735; 2013/14年为5536，2014 / 15年为12602。流感相关的ILI在总门诊量中的估计比例为3.16％;三个季节分别为0.86％和1.98％。阳性患者中流感病毒的分布为A（H3N2）15.5％; A（H1N1）pdm2009 39.2％; 2014/2015赛季B病毒占45.3％。从有症状病例的估计数量中，我们估计应接种疫苗的人口的关键比例分别为15％，4％和10％。针对R0的不同值运行模型，我们对有症状的临床病例数，临床发作率，有症状的临床发作率和死亡人数进行了量化。该模型的更实际版本和监视数据中参数的改进估计将加强对流感负担的估计。

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