...
  • 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Earth Surface Dynamics Discussions >Threshold effects of hazard mitigation in coastal human–environmental systems
【24h】

Threshold effects of hazard mitigation in coastal human–environmental systems

机译：沿海人类环境系统中减轻危害的阈值效应

获取原文
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

Despite improved scientific insight into physical and social dynamics related to natural disasters, the financial cost of extreme events continues to rise. This paradox is particularly evident along developed coastlines, where future hazards are projected to intensify with consequences of climate change, and where the presence of valuable infrastructure exacerbates risk. By design, coastal hazard mitigation buffers human activities against the variability of natural phenomena such as storms. But hazard mitigation also sets up feedbacks between human and natural dynamics. This paper explores developed coastlines as exemplary coupled human–environmental systems in which hazard mitigation is the key coupling mechanism. Results from a simplified numerical model of an agent-managed seawall illustrate the nonlinear effects that economic and physical thresholds can impart into coastal human–environmental system dynamics. The scale of mitigation action affects the time frame over which human activities and natural hazards interact. By accelerating environmental changes observable in some settings over human timescales of years to decades, climate change may temporarily strengthen the coupling between human and environmental dynamics. However, climate change could ultimately result in weaker coupling at those human timescales as mitigation actions increasingly engage global-scale systems.
机译：尽管对与自然灾害有关的自然和社会动态的科学见解得到了改善，但极端事件的财务成本仍在不断上升。这种悖论在发达的海岸线上尤为明显，预计未来的危害将因气候变化而加剧，而有价值的基础设施的存在会加剧风险。通过设计，减轻海岸带的灾害可以使人类活动免受风暴等自然现象的影响。但是，减轻危害还可以建立人与自然动力之间的反馈。本文探索了发达的海岸线，将其作为示例性的人类与环境的耦合系统，其中减轻灾害风险是关键的耦合机制。代理人管理的防波堤的简化数值模型的结果说明了经济和物理阈值可赋予沿海人-环境系统动力学的非线性影响。缓解行动的规模会影响人类活动与自然灾害相互作用的时间范围。通过加速在几年到几十年的人类时间尺度上某些环境中可观察到的环境变化，气候变化可以暂时加强人类与环境动力学之间的耦合。但是，随着减缓行动越来越多地涉及全球规模的系统，气候变化最终可能导致在这些人类时间尺度上的耦合减弱。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号