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Climate change and disruptions to global fire activity

机译：气候变化和对全球火灾的破坏

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Future disruptions to fire activity will threaten ecosystems and human well‐being throughout the world, yet there are few fire projections at global scales and almost none from a broad range of global climate models (GCMs). Here we integrate global fire datasets and environmental covariates to build spatial statistical models of fire probability at a 0.5° resolution and examine environmental controls on fire activity. Fire models are driven by climate norms from 16 GCMs (A2 emissions scenario) to assess the magnitude and direction of change over two time periods, 2010–2039 and 2070–2099. From the ensemble results, we identify areas of consensus for increases or decreases in fire activity, as well as areas where GCMs disagree. Although certain biomes are sensitive to constraints on biomass productivity and others to atmospheric conditions promoting combustion, substantial and rapid shifts are projected for future fire activity across vast portions of the globe. In the near term, the most consistent increases in fire activity occur in biomes with already somewhat warm climates; decreases are less pronounced and concentrated primarily in a few tropical and subtropical biomes. However, models do not agree on the direction of near‐term changes across more than 50% of terrestrial lands, highlighting major uncertainties in the next few decades. By the end of the century, the magnitude and the agreement in direction of change are projected to increase substantially. Most far‐term model agreement on increasing fire probabilities (～62%) occurs at mid‐ to high‐latitudes, while agreement on decreasing probabilities (～20%) is mainly in the tropics. Although our global models demonstrate that long‐term environmental norms are very successful at capturing chronic fire probability patterns, future work is necessary to assess how much more explanatory power would be added through interannual variation in climate variables. This study provides a first examination of global disruptions to fire activity using an empirically based statistical framework and a multi‐model ensemble of GCM projections, an important step toward assessing fire‐related vulnerabilities to humans and the ecosystems upon which they depend.
机译：未来对火活动的破坏将威胁全世界的生态系统和人类福祉，但全球范围的火灾预测很少，而广泛的全球气候模式（GCM）几乎没有。在这里，我们集成了全球火灾数据集和环境协变量，以0.5分辨率建立火灾概率的空间统计模型，并研究了对火灾活动的环境控制。火灾模型由16个GCM（A2排放情景）中的气候规范驱动，以评估两个时间段（2010-2039年和2070-2099年）的变化幅度和方向。从整体结果中，我们确定了火灾活动增加或减少的共识领域，以及GCM意见不一致的领域。尽管某些生物群落对生物量生产力的限制敏感，而其他一些生物群落对促进燃烧的大气条件敏感，但预计全球范围内未来的火灾活动将发生重大而迅速的转变。在短期内，最活跃的火灾活动增加发生在气候已经温暖的生物群落中。减少幅度较小，主要集中在一些热带和亚热带生物群落中。但是，模型在超过50％的陆地上的近期变化方向上并不一致，突显了未来几十年的主要不确定性。到本世纪末，改变方向的大小和共识预计将大大增加。关于增加火灾概率（〜62％）的大多数长期模型协议是在中高纬度地区发生的，而关于降低概率（〜20％）的协议主要是在热带地区。尽管我们的全球模型表明长期环境规范在捕获慢性火灾概率模式方面非常成功，但仍需要进行进一步的工作来评估通过气候变量的年际变化将增加多少解释力。这项研究使用基于经验的统计框架和GCM预测的多模型集合，提供了对全球火灾活动破坏的首次检查，这是评估火灾对人类及其赖以生存的生态系统脆弱性的重要一步。

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