...
  • 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Earth, planets and space: EPS >Advance short-term prediction of the large Tokachi-oki earthquake, September 25, 2003, M = 8.1 A case history
【24h】

Advance short-term prediction of the large Tokachi-oki earthquake, September 25, 2003, M = 8.1 A case history

机译：2003年9月25日十胜木大地震的提前短期预测，M = 8.1

获取原文
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

Tokachi-oki earthquake in northern Japan, September 25, 2003, magnitude 8.1, was predicted six months in advance by a short-term earthquake precursor " chain " that reflects an increase of the correlation range among small earthquakes. This prediction is part of the ongoing test of a new short-term prediction method; the test covers territories of Japan, California, and Eastern Mediterranean. Qualitatively, precursory chain is a dense sequence of small earthquakes that had quickly extended over a long distance. A strong earthquake is expected within nine months after such chain is formed, in its formally defined vicinity. Chains are analyzed in conjunction with intermediate-term precursors, emerging with characteristic lead time of years. Methodology of prediction is named "Reverse Tracing of Precursors" ( RTP ), since precursors are considered in the reverse order of their appearance. That allows detecting short-term precursors not detectable with direct order of analysis. RTP was tested retrospectively for California, Japan, and Eastern Mediterranean, where 22 more strong earthquakes occurred during the time considered. The concept underlying RTP is interaction of lithosphere dynamics on different temporal scales. The described results enhance our fundamental understanding of lithosphere dynamics and, on the practical side, our capability for earthquakes preparedness.
机译：短期地震前兆“链”预测日本北部的十胜木地震于2003年9月25日发生，震级为8.1级，反映了小地震之间的相关范围增加。这种预测是对新的短期预测方法正在进行的测试的一部分;该测试覆盖日本，加利福尼亚和地中海东部地区。从本质上讲，前兆链是密集的小地震序列，已经迅速延伸了很长一段距离。在这种链条正式形成后的九个月内，预计会发生强烈地震。结合中期前体对链进行分析，这些中期前体的出现具有特征性的提前期。预测的方法被称为“前体的反向跟踪”（RTP），因为前体的出现顺序与它们的出现顺序相反。这样就可以检测直接分析顺序无法检测到的短期前体。在加利福尼亚，日本和地中海东部地区对RTP进行了回顾性测试，在此期间，这里发生了22次更大的地震。 RTP背后的概念是岩石圈动力学在不同时间尺度上的相互作用。所描述的结果增强了我们对岩石圈动力学的基本理解，并且在实践方面增强了我们的地震防备能力。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号