A close coupling between monitoring and modeling is needed for a quantitative prediction of volcanic eruption and earthquake occurrence. The need is demonstrated for the volcano, Piton de la Fournaise, for which a relatively simple model can be constructed because of the isolated tectonic setting and can be tested in a short time because of the high rate of eruptions. Our conceptual model (Fig. 2) explains various observations for each of the 49 eruptions since 1972 in terms of the varying conditions of the model elements, allowing inferences on causal relations between consecutive eruptive periods, recognized as alternating active and quiet ones, as well as predictions on the possible eruption scenarios for the future. Lessons learned from the volcano are applied to earthquake prediction in California, and we found a model of earthquake loading process by plate-driving forces that can be effectively constrained by data from the existing seismic network. The model identified that the periods of several years preceding the 1952 Kern County earthquake and the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake are in the anomalous phase of the loading process. A companion paper by Jin et al . (2004) in the present issue shows that the 1992 Landers earthquake and the 1999 Hector Mine earthquake were also preceded by the period of anomalous loading process.
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机译：为了定量预测火山喷发和地震的发生，需要在监视和建模之间建立紧密的联系。证明了对Piton de la Fournaise火山的需求，由于构造环境孤立，可以建立一个相对简单的模型，并且由于喷发率高，可以在短时间内对其进行测试。我们的概念模型（图2）根据模型要素的不同条件解释了自1972年以来的49次喷发中的每一种观测结果，从而可以推断出连续喷发周期之间的因果关系，这些喷发周期也被认为是活跃和平静交替发生的作为对未来可能发生的喷发情景的预测。从火山中汲取的经验教训被用于加利福尼亚的地震预测，我们发现了由板块驱动力引起的地震加载过程模型，该模型可以有效地限制现有地震网络中的数据。该模型确定1952年克恩县地震和1989年洛马普里埃塔地震之前的几年处于加载过程的异常阶段。 Jin等人的随笔。 （2004年）在本期中显示，在1992年的Landers地震和1999年的Hector Mine地震之前也出现了异常加载过程。
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