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Asymmetric and nonlinear pass-through of global crude oil price to China’s PPI and CPI inflation

机译：全球原油价格对中国PPI和CPI通胀的不对称和非线性传递

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AbstractWith China’s expanding import demand of crude oil and the gradually relaxing regulation of domestic oil prices, the global oil price is likely to affect China’s price level more closely. Based on an augmented Phillips curve framework, this article employs both the autoregressive distribution lag (ARDL) and nonlinear and asymmetric autoregressive distribution lag (NARDL) model to investigate pass-through effects of crude oil price on China’s producer prices index (PPI) and consumer prices index (CPI) in China. It is found that the impact of global oil price fluctuations to China’s PPI and CPI are asymmetrical in the long-run, and the long-term impacts of the rise in global oil prices on PPI and CPI are greater than the global oil price decline on PPI and CPI. However, the symmetric ARDL model fails to diagnose the impact of oil price to China’s PPI and CPI. Therefore, it is necessary to consider asymmetric relationship in the study of global oil price’s influence on China’s domestic prices.
机译：摘要随着中国对原油进口需求的扩大以及国内油价的逐步放宽，全球油价可能会更紧密地影响中国的价格水平。基于增强的菲利普斯曲线框架，本文采用自回归分布滞后（ARDL）和非线性与非对称自回归分布滞后（NARDL）模型来研究原油价格对中国生产者价格指数（PPI）和消费者的传递效应中国的物价指数（CPI）。研究发现，从长期来看，全球油价波动对中国PPI和CPI的影响是不对称的，全球油价上涨对PPI和CPI的长期影响大于全球油价下跌的影响。 PPI和CPI。但是，对称的ARDL模型无法诊断出油价对中国PPI和CPI的影响。因此，在研究全球油价对中国国内价格的影响时，有必要考虑不对称关系。

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