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Tidal hydrodynamics under future sea level rise and coastal morphology in the Northern Gulf of Mexico

机译：墨西哥北部湾未来海平面上升和海岸形态下的潮汐水动力

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This study examines the integrated influence of sea level rise (SLR) and future morphology on tidal hydrodynamics along the Northern Gulf of Mexico (NGOM) coast including seven embayments and three ecologically and economically significant estuaries. A large?￠????domain hydrodynamic model was used to simulate astronomic tides for present and future conditions (circa 2050 and 2100). Future conditions were simulated by imposing four SLR scenarios to alter hydrodynamic boundary conditions and updating shoreline position and dune heights using a probabilistic model that is coupled to SLR. Under the highest SLR scenario, tidal amplitudes within the bays increased as much as 67% (10.0?￠????cm) because of increases in the inlet cross?￠????sectional area. Changes in harmonic constituent phases indicated that tidal propagation was faster in the future scenarios within most of the bays. Maximum tidal velocities increased in all of the bays, especially in Grand Bay where velocities doubled under the highest SLR scenario. In addition, the ratio of the maximum flood to maximum ebb velocity decreased in the future scenarios (i.e., currents became more ebb dominant) by as much as 26% and 39% in Weeks Bay and Apalachicola, respectively. In Grand Bay, the flood?￠????ebb ratio increased (i.e., currents became more flood dominant) by 25% under the lower SLR scenarios, but decreased by 16% under the higher SLR as a result of the offshore barrier islands being overtopped, which altered the tidal prism. Results from this study can inform future storm surge and ecological assessments of SLR, and improve monitoring and management decisions within the NGOM.
机译：这项研究考察了海平面上升（SLR）和未来形态对墨西哥北部海湾（NGOM）沿岸潮汐水动力的综合影响，包括7个路口和3个具有生态和经济意义的河口。一个大的域流体力学模型被用来模拟当前和未来状况（大约2050年和2100年）的天文潮。通过施加四个SLR场景来改变水动力边界条件并使用耦合到SLR的概率模型来更新海岸线位置和沙丘高度，来模拟未来条件。在最高的SLR情况下，由于入口横截面积的增加，海湾内的潮汐振幅增加了多达67％（10.0 ??????? cm）。谐波成分相位的变化表明，在大多数海湾中，未来的潮汐传播速度更快。在所有海湾中，最大潮汐速度都有所增加，特别是在最高SLR情况下，速度翻了一番的大海湾。此外，在未来的情况下，最大洪水与最大退潮速度的比率（即潮流变得更加退潮）降低了，在周湾和阿巴拉契科拉分别降低了26％和39％。在大湾区，在低SLR情景下，洪水的退潮率增加了25％（即，水流占洪水的主导地位），但在高SLR下，由于离岸障碍岛，洪水的退潮率增加了25％。被超越，改变了潮汐棱镜。这项研究的结果可以为SLR的未来风暴潮和生态评估提供依据，并改善NGOM中的监视和管理决策。

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