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Trends in parameterization, economics and host behaviour in influenza pandemic modelling: a review and reporting protocol

机译：流感大流行建模中参数化，经济和宿主行为的趋势：审查和报告协议

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Background The volume of influenza pandemic modelling studies has increased dramatically in the last decade. Many models incorporate now sophisticated parameterization and validation techniques, economic analyses and the behaviour of individuals. Methods We reviewed trends in these aspects in models for influenza pandemic preparedness that aimed to generate policy insights for epidemic management and were published from 2000 to September 2011, i.e. before and after the 2009 pandemic. Results We find that many influenza pandemics models rely on parameters from previous modelling studies, models are rarely validated using observed data and are seldom applied to low-income countries. Mechanisms for international data sharing would be necessary to facilitate a wider adoption of model validation. The variety of modelling decisions makes it difficult to compare and evaluate models systematically. Conclusions We propose a model Characteristics, Construction, Parameterization and Validation aspects protocol (CCPV protocol) to contribute to the systematisation of the reporting of models with an emphasis on the incorporation of economic aspects and host behaviour. Model reporting, as already exists in many other fields of modelling, would increase confidence in model results, and transparency in their assessment and comparison.
机译：背景技术在过去十年中，流感大流行建模研究的数量急剧增加。现在，许多模型都结合了复杂的参数化和验证技术，经济分析和个人行为。方法我们在2000年至2011年9月（即2009年大流行之前和之后）发布的流感大流行防范模型中回顾了这些方面的趋势，这些模型旨在为流行病管理提供政策见解。结果我们发现，许多流感大流行模型都依赖于以前的建模研究中的参数，很少使用观察到的数据来验证模型，因此很少将其应用于低收入国家。为了促进更广泛地采用模型验证，必须建立国际数据共享机制。建模决策的多样性使得难以系统地比较和评估模型。结论我们提出了一个模型特征，构造，参数化和验证方面协议（CCPV协议），以促进模型报告的系统化，重点是经济方面和主体行为的结合。正如许多其他建模领域中已经存在的那样，模型报告将增加对模型结果的信心，并增加其评估和比较的透明度。

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