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Diagram-based Analysis of Causal Systems (DACS): elucidating inter-relationships between determinants of acute lower respiratory infections among children in sub-Saharan Africa

机译:基于图的因果系统分析(DACS):阐明撒哈拉以南非洲儿童急性下呼吸道感染的决定因素之间的相互关系

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Background Effective interventions require evidence on how individual causal pathways jointly determine disease. Based on the concept of systems epidemiology, this paper develops Diagram-based Analysis of Causal Systems (DACS) as an approach to analyze complex systems, and applies it by examining the contributions of proximal and distal determinants of childhood acute lower respiratory infections (ALRI) in sub-Saharan Africa. Results Diagram-based Analysis of Causal Systems combines the use of causal diagrams with multiple routinely available data sources, using a variety of statistical techniques. In a step-by-step process, the causal diagram evolves from conceptual based on a priori knowledge and assumptions, through operational informed by data availability which then undergoes empirical testing, to integrated which synthesizes information from multiple datasets. In our application, we apply different regression techniques to Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) datasets for Benin, Ethiopia, Kenya and Namibia and a pooled World Health Survey (WHS) dataset for sixteen African countries. Explicit strategies are employed to make decisions transparent about the inclusion/omission of arrows, the sign and strength of the relationships and homogeneity/heterogeneity across settings. Findings about the current state of evidence on the complex web of socio-economic, environmental, behavioral and healthcare factors influencing childhood ALRI, based on DHS and WHS data, are summarized in an integrated causal diagram. Notably, solid fuel use is structured by socio-economic factors and increases the risk of childhood ALRI mortality. Conclusions Diagram-based Analysis of Causal Systems is a means of organizing the current state of knowledge about a specific area of research, and a framework for integrating statistical analyses across a whole system. This partly a priori approach is explicit about causal assumptions guiding the analysis and about researcher judgment, and wrong assumptions can be reversed following empirical testing. This approach is well-suited to dealing with complex systems, in particular where data are scarce.
机译:背景技术有效的干预措施需要有关个体因果途径如何共同确定疾病的证据。基于系统流行病学的概念,本文开发了基于图的因果系统分析(DACS)作为分析复杂系统的方法,并通过检查儿童急性下呼吸道感染(ALRI)的近端和远端决定因素的作用来应用它在撒哈拉以南非洲。基于结果图的因果系统分析结合了因果图和多种常规可用数据源的使用,并使用了多种统计技术。在逐步过程中,因果图从基于先验知识和假设的概念演变为通过数据可用性通知的操作,然后进行实证测试,再演变为从多个数据集中合成信息的集成。在我们的应用程序中,我们将不同的回归技术应用于贝宁,埃塞俄比亚,肯尼亚和纳米比亚的人口与健康调查(DHS)数据集以及十六个非洲国家的汇总世界卫生调查(WHS)数据集。显式策略用于使决策在包含或省略箭头,关系的符号和强度以及设置之间的同质性/异质性方面透明。在综合的因果关系图中,总结了基于DHS和WHS数据的影响儿童ALRI的复杂社会,经济,环境,行为和医疗因素网络上的当前证据状态。值得注意的是,固体燃料的使用受社会经济因素的影响,并增加了儿童ALRI死亡的风险。结论基于图的因果系统分析是一种组织有关特定研究领域的当前知识状态的方法,并且是在整个系统中集成统计分析的框架。这种先验方法部分地明确了指导分析的因果假设和研究人员的判断,而经过实验检验可以推翻错误的假设。这种方法非常适合处理复杂的系统,尤其是在数据稀缺的地方。

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