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首页> 外文期刊>Energy and Environment Research >Change in the Annual Water Withdrawal-to-Availability Ratio and Its Major Causes: An Evaluation for Asian River Basins Under Socioeconomic Development and Climate Change Scenarios
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Change in the Annual Water Withdrawal-to-Availability Ratio and Its Major Causes: An Evaluation for Asian River Basins Under Socioeconomic Development and Climate Change Scenarios

机译：年取水率的变化及其主要原因：社会经济发展和气候变化情景下亚洲流域的评价

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摘要

More than half of the world's population lives in Asia, and ensuring a stable water supply is a critical issue. This study evaluates changes in the annual water withdrawal-to-availability ratio (WAR), and the major causes thereof, for each of Asian river basins under different socioeconomic development and climate change scenarios. According to our evaluation, the WAR will increase in 59%–61% of the Asian river basin areas by around 2030, as a result of population growth and the increase in per capita municipal and industrial water withdrawals. On the other hand, the WAR will decrease in 8%–16% of such areas, due to the increase in water availability associated with global warming and a decrease in per capita water agricultural withdrawal. After 2030, there will be a reduction of areas with increasing WAR because of a slowdown in the growth of both population and per capita municipal and industrial water withdrawals, while there will be an expansion of areas with decreasing WAR caused by continual decrease in per capita agricultural water withdrawal and intensified water availability. Significant measures to suppress WAR increase will differ by river basin, depending on the causes for the WAR increase. For instance, measures to deal with population increase and efforts to improve industrial and municipal water use by around 2030 will be important in the Huang He river basin. In the Indus river basin, coping with the decrease in water availability after around 2030 will be important. In addition, measures to handle population increase will be necessary.
机译：世界一半以上的人口居住在亚洲，确保稳定的供水是至关重要的问题。这项研究评估了在不同社会经济发展和气候变化情景下，亚洲每个流域的年度取水量/可用水率（WAR）的变化及其主要原因。根据我们的评估，由于人口增长以及人均市政和工业取水量的增加，到2030年左右，WAR将占亚洲流域面积的59％– 61％。另一方面，由于与全球变暖有关的可用水量增加和人均农业取水量减少，WAR将在这些地区减少8％–16％。 2030年后，由于人口增长以及人均城市和工业用水量增长的放缓，WAR上升的地区将减少，而人均持续下降导致WAR下降的地区将会扩大农业取水量和可用水量增加。根据WAR增加的原因，流域抑制WAR增加的重要措施会有所不同。例如，在黄河流域，应对人口增长的措施以及在2030年左右改善工业和市政用水的努力将非常重要。在印度河河流域，应对2030年左右以后水资源短缺的问题很重要。此外，有必要采取措施应对人口增长。

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