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Early efforts in modeling the incubation period of infectious diseases with an acute course of illness

机译：对具有急性病程的传染病潜伏期进行建模的早期工作

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The incubation period of infectious diseases, the time from infection with a microorganism to onset of disease, is directly relevant to prevention and control. Since explicit models of the incubation period enhance our understanding of the spread of disease, previous classic studies were revisited, focusing on the modeling methods employed and paying particular attention to relatively unknown historical efforts. The earliest study on the incubation period of pandemic influenza was published in 1919, providing estimates of the incubation period of Spanish flu using the daily incidence on ships departing from several ports in Australia. Although the study explicitly dealt with an unknown time of exposure, the assumed periods of exposure, which had an equal probability of infection, were too long, and thus, likely resulted in slight underestimates of the incubation period. After the suggestion that the incubation period follows lognormal distribution, Japanese epidemiologists extended this assumption to estimates of the time of exposure during a point source outbreak. Although the reason why the incubation period of acute infectious diseases tends to reveal a right-skewed distribution has been explored several times, the validity of the lognormal assumption is yet to be fully clarified. At present, various different distributions are assumed, and the lack of validity in assuming lognormal distribution is particularly apparent in the case of slowly progressing diseases. The present paper indicates that (1) analysis using well-defined short periods of exposure with appropriate statistical methods is critical when the exact time of exposure is unknown, and (2) when assuming a specific distribution for the incubation period, comparisons using different distributions are needed in addition to estimations using different datasets, analyses of the determinants of incubation period, and an understanding of the underlying disease mechanisms.
机译：传染病的潜伏期，即从微生物感染到疾病发作的时间，与预防和控制直接相关。由于潜伏期的明确模型增强了我们对疾病传播的理解，因此重新审视了以前的经典研究，重点关注所采用的建模方法，并特别注意了相对未知的历史工作。关于大流行性流感潜伏期的最早研究发表于1919年，使用从澳大利亚几个港口驶出的船舶的日发病率估算西班牙流感的潜伏期。尽管该研究明确地处理了未知的暴露时间，但假定的具有相同感染可能性的暴露时间过长，因此可能会略微低估潜伏期。在潜伏期遵循对数正态分布的建议之后，日本流行病学家将这一假设扩展为对点源暴发期间暴露时间的估计。尽管已经探究了急性传染病潜伏期趋于呈现右偏分布的原因，但对数正态假设的有效性尚待充分阐明。目前，假定各种不同的分布，并且在疾病进展缓慢的情况下，尤其难以证明对数正态分布的有效性。本文指出（1）当确切的暴露时间未知时，使用适当的统计方法使用明确定义的短期暴露进行分析非常关键;（2）假设潜伏期有特定分布时，使用不同分布进行比较除了使用不同的数据集进行估计，对潜伏期决定因素的分析以及对潜在疾病机制的理解外，还需要进行评估。

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