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首页> 外文期刊>Environmental Research Letters >The days of plenty might soon be over in glacierized Central Asian catchments
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The days of plenty might soon be over in glacierized Central Asian catchments

机译：在冰川化的中亚集水区，丰盛的日子可能即将结束

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Despite the fact that the fast-growing population of Central Asia strongly depends on glacial melt water for fresh water supply, irrigation and hydropower production, the impact of glacier shrinkage on water availability remains poorly understood. With an annual area loss of 0.36 to 0.76%, glaciers are retreating particularly fast in the northern Tien Shan, thus causing concern about future water security in the densely populated regions of Bishkek and Almaty. Here, we use exceptionally long in-situ data series to run and calibrate a distributed glacio-hydrological model, which we then force with downscaled data from phase five of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project CMIP5. We observe that even in the most glacier-friendly scenario, glaciers will lose up to two thirds (?60%) of their 1955 extent by the end of the 21st century. The range of climate scenarios translates into different changes in overall water availability, from peak water being reached in the 2020s over a gradual decrease to status quo until the end of the 21st century. The days of plenty, however, will not last much longer, as summer runoff is projected to decrease, independent of scenario uncertainty. These results highlight the need for immediate planning of mitigation measures in the agricultural and energy sectors to assure long-term water security in the densely populated forelands of the Tien Shan.
机译：尽管中亚快速增长的人口在很大程度上依赖于冰川融化水来提供淡水，灌溉和水力发电，但冰川收缩对水供应的影响仍然知之甚少。由于年面积减少0.36％至0.76％，天山北部的冰川退缩特别快，因此引起人们对比什凯克和阿拉木图人口稠密地区未来水安全的担忧。在这里，我们使用异常长的原位数据序列来运行和校准分布式冰川水文模型，然后使用来自气候模型比对项目CMIP5的第五阶段的缩小规模的数据进行强制。我们观察到，即使在对冰川最友好的情况下，到21世纪末，冰川也将损失其1955年范围的三分之二（约60％）。从2020年代达到峰值水量（逐渐减少）到现状一直持续到21世纪末，气候情景的变化转化为整体可用水量的不同变化。然而，丰盛的日子不会持续太久，因为预计夏季径流将减少，而与情景不确定性无关。这些结果表明，需要立即计划农业和能源部门的缓解措施，以确保天山人口稠密的前陆地区的长期水安全。

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